French Open: Who Can Claim Men's Title After Sinner's Exit?

Jannik Sinner’s shock second-round loss to Juan Manuel Cerúndolo has blown the men’s French Open wide open. Sinner arrived in Paris as the clearest favourite for a men’s major since Rafael Nadal in 2009 — and, in a twist of history, like Nadal that year he failed to convert the billing into Roland-Garros success. With the world No. 1 gone, who now looks best placed to lift the trophy next Sunday?

Alexander Zverev

Ranking: 3, Age: 29

Zverev, long the nearly-man at Slams, is the new bookmakers’ favourite. The German has reached three major finals in recent years and has the power game to dominate on clay: a huge serve, heavy groundstrokes and four Masters 1000 clay titles among his seven Masters wins. He also recovered from a serious right-ankle injury sustained in the 2022 French Open. The central question is whether Zverev can cope with the extra pressure that comes with clear favourite status and finally take the big step to a first major.

Novak Djokovic

Ranking: 4, Age: 39

Djokovic is the only Grand Slam champion remaining and sits on 24 majors; one more would move him past Margaret Court for the all-time record. He concentrates his schedule around Slams and, even at 39, remains one of the best competitors under pressure. Concerns for Djokovic are his limited recent clay match play — he lost to Dino Prizmic in Rome — and whether age and the physical grind of two weeks in Paris might catch up with him. Tough opponents lie in his path before any final could be secured.

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranking: 6, Age: 25

Auger-Aliassime has yet to translate his talent into a first major final. He prefers hard courts and often has taxing early-round matches that leave him with less in reserve for the late stages. This week’s five-set tiebreak win over Daniel Altmaier and another dropped set in round two underline that pattern. With the top half more open now, he has a clearer route, but he needs smoother, more efficient wins to capitalise.

Alex de Minaur

Ranking: 7, Age: 27

De Minaur is remarkably consistent at Slams — seven quarter-final appearances but none beyond — and clay is not his best surface. A recent semi-final in Hamburg showed some form on clay, and he benefited from a second-round walkover to conserve energy. If he can avoid brutal, draining matches, his fitness and consistency could be an asset in the bottom half, though his lack of deep Slam runs remains a question.

Flavio Cobolli

Ranking: 14, Age: 24

Cobolli has been an eye-catching performer on clay this fortnight and sits in the same section as Auger-Aliassime. A natural baseliner with strong ball-striking, he helped Italy retain the Davis Cup last year and has not dropped a set so far at Roland-Garros. If he continues this form — and stays composed — he could be a genuine dark-horse quarter-final contender.

Casper Ruud

Ranking: 16, Age: 27

Ruud is a proven clay-court specialist, having been runner-up at Roland-Garros in 2022 and 2023. His heavy topspin is a tough matchup for most players. He’s slated to meet Djokovic in the fourth round if both progress. Ruud showed match sharpness with deep runs in the build-up and a tough five-set first-round win here, but the exertions and the possibility of facing Djokovic early make his route physically demanding.

Frances Tiafoe

Ranking: 22, Age: 28

Tiafoe’s big serve and powerful forehand make him dangerous on any surface, and he reached the French Open quarter-finals last year. Clay is arguably his weakest surface, but he occupies an open top half and wouldn’t face a seeded player until the latter rounds, which could open a pathway for a deep run if he finds rhythm.

Rafael Jodar

Ranking: 29, Age: 19

With Carlos Alcaraz absent, the hot young Spaniard Rafael Jodar has excited fans. He surged from outside the top 100 in March to the top 30 with strong clay results: a Challenger title, semi-finals in Barcelona and later runs in Madrid and Rome. His power and movement on clay suit Roland-Garros, but he’s in a stacked bottom half that includes Zverev, Djokovic and Ruud, which complicates any deep run.

Other names to watch

Aside from Djokovic, there are no other major champions left, so the winner could be someone outside the usual elite. Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov can both cause upsets if they stay calm and play freely. World No. 62 Raphaël Collignon produced a shock straight-sets win over Ben Shelton and is a reminder that form can produce surprises. French teenager Moïse Kouamé, 17, is the youngest to reach a third round at a major since Nadal in 2003 and has home crowd momentum; he may meet Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round. As for Cerúndolo, Sinner’s conqueror, his victory owed something to Sinner’s physical problems — for him to go deep, he’ll need to raise his level further.

Bottom line

Sinner’s exit has made this a more unpredictable Roland-Garros than many expected. Zverev looks the betting favourite with the game to win on clay, Djokovic remains a constant threat in majors despite age questions, and a handful of in-form players — Ruud, Cobolli, Jodar, Auger-Aliassime and a few others — could all make serious runs. With only one Grand Slam champion left in the field and several players showing timely form, Paris may produce either a first-time major winner or another chapter in Djokovic’s historic chase. Either way, an open draw guarantees an intriguing final week.