When Oscar Piastri’s win at the Dutch Grand Prix in late August left Max Verstappen 104 points adrift, most in the paddock — Verstappen included — assumed his run of four consecutive titles was effectively over. Verstappen was also about 70 points behind Lando Norris, who might have completed a McLaren one-two at Zandvoort were it not for a late technical problem that forced him to retire.
Verstappen’s second place at his home race was only his second podium in an eight-race winless spell that coincided with Red Bull’s internal upheaval: Christian Horner was replaced as team principal by Laurent Mekies. At that stage Red Bull appeared unable to match McLaren’s raw pace and the championship looked out of reach.
Three months later, Verstappen arrives at the season finale in Abu Dhabi with a real shot at extending his streak. Over the last eight rounds he has outscored Piastri by 108 points, moved ahead of his former teammate and now sits 12 points behind championship leader Norris. While Red Bull’s form has improved substantially, it’s McLaren’s late-season mistakes that have reopened the title fight.
How Red Bull turned it around
Red Bull hit a low in Hungary, where Verstappen qualified eighth and finished ninth — his weakest weekend for pace all year. Zandvoort showed signs of improvement, but Verstappen still couldn’t match the McLarens on raw speed, even if Norris’ retirement helped him to second.
The momentum shift arrived with a major floor upgrade introduced at Monza. The package let Verstappen take pole and win in Italy and then repeat the feat in Baku. Since that upgrade he’s reached the podium in eight consecutive races, including four wins. Team morale has improved under Mekies and, despite inconsistency from Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull and Verstappen have been notably strong during this late surge.
Baku errors open a crack for Red Bull
McLaren had enjoyed a season with relatively few major mistakes, so Oscar Piastri crashing out of both qualifying and the race in Baku was a shock. Some suggested the Australian’s form may have been unsettled after the team asked him to yield second to Norris in Italy following a slow pit stop, but whatever the cause, Piastri promptly went through a slump that yielded six races without a podium.
Norris failed to gain maximum advantage from Piastri’s troubles in Baku — he qualified only seventh and made race errors that left him stuck — while Verstappen was clinical, moving up the order and keeping his title hopes alive.
Austin fallout and the Sprint collision
Tensions flared publicly after Norris passed Piastri at the Singapore Grand Prix. The team initially described the contact as a racing incident, but ahead of the United States weekend Norris suggested he would accept team-enforced “repercussions.” That manifested as a controversial decision to give Piastri priority over Norris in the late stages of qualifying at Austin — an ambiguous measure that dominated the build-up to the Sprint.
The policy collapsed almost immediately. At the Sprint start Piastri launched a reckless move that collected both McLarens and took them out of the race. Team management quickly returned to treating both drivers equally. Verstappen won the Sprint and collected eight points on McLaren; the McLarens’ Sprint retirement also deprived the team of weekend data that could have been useful. In the Grand Prix Norris recovered to second and Piastri to fifth, leaving Verstappen within 40 points with five races to go.
Las Vegas disqualifications hand Verstappen a lifeline
Norris responded with two outstanding weekends — pole and victory in Mexico City and strong results in Brazil — regaining and then extending the championship lead. After Interlagos Verstappen trailed Norris by 49 points with only a triple-header remaining.
Las Vegas initially looked to strengthen McLaren’s grip on the title fight, but hours after the race both McLarens were disqualified for exceeding skid block wear limits. The decision wiped crucial points from Norris and Piastri’s tallies, dramatically tightening the standings. The ruling left Verstappen level with Piastri and 24 points behind Norris with two races remaining. McLaren later explained the excessive wear as the result of a setup error that caused extreme bouncing — a costly miscalculation given how well Norris had been performing.
Qatar strategy error keeps the fight alive
Qatar presented Norris with a prime opportunity to close out the championship, but a series of strategic missteps from McLaren kept the title contest open. Piastri returned to form, taking pole and winning the Sprint, while Norris was third in both and Verstappen fourth. In qualifying Norris ruined his final flying lap, handing Piastri pole and leaving Norris second on the grid. Verstappen made the most of the start and moved into second early.
A one-off tyre-life limit in Qatar effectively mandated two stops unless red flags intervened. When an early Safety Car arrived on lap seven most teams pitted to lock in two balanced stints; McLaren chose to leave both cars out, citing strategic flexibility and worries about emerging in traffic or suffering a double-stack delay. With no further Safety Car interruptions the decision backfired. Verstappen pitted and later chased down Piastri to take the win, while Norris recovered to fourth after a rival’s mistake, salvaging a couple of points.
Where things stand
Norris still heads to Abu Dhabi as favourite, leading Verstappen by 12 points with Piastri a further four points adrift. But McLaren’s late errors — in qualifying strategy, intra-team handling, car setup and the costly Las Vegas disqualification — have opened the door for one of the sport’s more remarkable comebacks.
The season will be decided at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, where a clean weekend for McLaren or another late surge from Verstappen could settle the title.