Paul Merson warns the Premier League title race may come down to goal difference, and Manchester City need more than a narrow victory at Burnley to seize control. After City’s 2-1 win at the Etihad on Sunday they remain three points behind Arsenal but have a game in hand — with goal difference precariously close (City +36, Arsenal +37) and City having scored more overall. Any win at Burnley would briefly move City above Arsenal, but Merson argues a comfortable margin is essential.
“It will come down to how much Man City beat Burnley by,” he says. A one-goal victory wouldn’t be decisive: if City only edge Burnley by a goal or two, Arsenal could quickly be back on top. Arsenal still have two matches while City have this midweek trip, so the pendulum can swing again depending on results.
Merson stresses Arsenal must take full advantage of their next fixtures. Wins over Newcastle and Fulham are vital to put pressure back on City and build a cushion before City’s schedule tightens again.
Key upcoming matches Merson highlights:
– Wednesday April 22: Burnley vs Man City
– Saturday April 25: Arsenal vs Newcastle
– Saturday May 2: Arsenal vs Fulham
– Monday May 4: Everton vs Man City
On paper City’s remaining opponents don’t look overly daunting: Everton and Brentford (both battling for European places), plus Crystal Palace at the Etihad and Aston Villa on the final day. But Merson notes context matters — Palace may be focused on a European final, Villa’s priorities could shift if their own European status is settled — and, crucially, City need to put multiple goals past Burnley now because tighter games against Everton, Brentford and Bournemouth are likely.
“If they don’t score many, and the goal difference between the two teams is one or two goals, Arsenal are back in the title race,” Merson warns. “If City don’t rip Burnley up by four or five, they’re not going to do that against Everton in their next game.”
Merson also reviewed Arsenal’s performance at the Etihad: the visitors were unlucky in parts — Kai Havertz slipped when through, Eberechi Eze hit the post and Gabriel’s header struck the woodwork instead of creating a penalty chance — but defensive lapses were costly. He singled out Gabriel Martinelli for failing to pick up Nico O’Reilly’s run for City’s winner.
“You’ve got to pick people up,” Merson said, arguing that at a club like Arsenal players must do their defensive jobs without repeated reminders. Even if an attacker has space, Martinelli should have anticipated and curtailed the danger. Small errors like that can cost points in a title race likely to be settled by fine margins.