With three Premier League games remaining, the relegation battle has effectively narrowed to Tottenham and West Ham. Recent results have swung momentum dramatically: back-to-back wins under Roberto De Zerbi have lifted Spurs out of the bottom three, while West Ham’s 3-0 loss at Brentford has left them clinging to danger.
The next fixtures could be decisive and are both live on Sky Sports. West Ham, one point behind Tottenham but with an inferior goal difference, host title-chasing Arsenal on Sunday — a tough assignment given Arsenal’s recent form. Tottenham travel to Leeds on Monday night, a tricky away game against a side enjoying a strong run under Daniel Farke.
Remaining Premier League fixtures (each side):
– Tottenham: Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H)
– West Ham: Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)
Opta’s models now rate West Ham as overwhelming favourites to go down, assigning them better than an 80% chance of relegation; Spurs’ probability sits at about 19.3%. That represents a big reversal from early May, when Spurs were estimated to have around a 59% chance of relegation before De Zerbi’s initial victories.
Bookmakers mirror that shift: West Ham are being offered short odds to go down (around 1/4), while Spurs are longer priced (about 3/1). Other clubs — Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace and Leeds United — retain only remote chances (under 1% in Opta’s projection). Mathematically, even 13th-placed Newcastle could be dragged into trouble, but only under an almost impossible combination of results and a large goal-difference swing.
Form and fixtures
This has been an unusually competitive scrap. Since mid-January West Ham have been one of the division’s better sides on form, while Spurs’ improvement is more recent: in the four games since De Zerbi arrived they’ve matched West Ham’s seven-point return. Leeds have been among the league’s in-form sides over the last month, making Tottenham’s trip to Elland Road a challenging test.
Opta ranks West Ham’s remaining schedule among the toughest in the division; Arsenal’s current momentum — domestically and in Europe — makes Sunday’s match particularly awkward for the Hammers. Tottenham, by contrast, face what is considered a relatively easier finish to the season, with Chelsea and Everton up next after Leeds, although both fixtures still carry risk.
How many points will be enough?
Opta’s supercomputer projects 40 points as a likely safety target this season. Historically, over the last nine Premier League campaigns most teams on 36 or more points have stayed up, and only three sides in the 20-team era have been relegated with 40 or more points (Sunderland 1996/97, Bolton 1997/98, West Ham 2002/03).
What to watch this weekend
A West Ham win against Arsenal would flip much of the narrative; a Spurs victory at Leeds would open up breathing room and put the onus back on the Hammers. Both games carry heavy significance and could determine whether this season’s relegation fight remains a two-horse race.
Broadcast: West Ham vs Arsenal — Sunday, kick-off 4:30pm (Sky Sports). Tottenham vs Leeds — Monday, kick-off 8:00pm (Sky Sports).