Liverpool’s Long-Pass Vulnerability Could Help Leeds

Welcome to The Radar, where Nick Wright mixes data and opinion on the Premier League. This week: Liverpool’s recurring long-pass problem, how Leeds’ tweak could make it worse, and a player to watch.

Liverpool’s long-pass weakness laid bare
Mohamed Salah’s absence from Liverpool’s starting XI after the 1-1 draw with Sunderland grabbed headlines, but the game underlined a bigger, recurring issue: opponents are increasingly beating Liverpool with long balls.

Sunderland attempted 73 long passes at Anfield (Opta) — the third-highest total in a Premier League match this season — and Liverpool have now been on the receiving end of four of the five highest long-pass totals this term. Under Arne Slot, opponents are using long passes against Liverpool far more than they do against most teams, and the results have been inconsistent. In the four matches this season where an opponent reached 70 long passes, Liverpool managed only one win; both Crystal Palace and Manchester United took maximum points in similar contests.

The broader trend is clear in the numbers. In the 13 league games this season where an opponent sent more than 20% of their passes long, Liverpool’s win rate is just 30.8%, compared with 71.8% in matches where the opposition’s long-pass share is lower. This vulnerability isn’t new: Liverpool regularly faced high long-pass shares under Jurgen Klopp too, although that metric eased in his final seasons. This term Liverpool’s opponents are sending 18.22% of their passes long (Arsenal are next on 15.67%) versus a league average of 11.77%.

The Sunderland match showed how those long balls create real danger. Sunderland goalkeeper Robin Roefs played 31 of 53 passes long — his highest long-pass total this season — and one of those launches led to the opener when Wilson Isidor won the first header, Virgil van Dijk failed to clear the second ball, and Chemsdine Talbi finished. Roefs also released Isidor in stoppage time for a chance that nearly won the game. While Van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté are winning a greater share of aerial duels this term (Van Dijk up from 72% to 78%; Konaté from 70% to 72%), they are contesting about 45% more aerials and the follow-up second balls are proving costly.

Why teams opt for long passes
Playing long and sitting deep is an attractive plan against Liverpool because it circumvents their press. Slot’s side are pressing less effectively than before, in part because they have fewer opportunities to win the ball high: several pressing metrics — high turnovers, possessions won in the final third, pressures and counter-pressures — are down on last season. That decline gives opponents more chances to get to second balls and loose clearances and to turn those moments into clear chances.

Will Leeds exploit it?
Saturday’s trip to Elland Road should set alarm bells ringing for Liverpool. Leeds, now back in the top flight under Daniel Farke, have shifted to a 3-4-2-1 which allows them to start Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Lukas Nmecha together. That pairing gives Leeds more physical presence up front and makes a more direct, aerial approach a realistic option. Notably, Leeds registered their highest percentage of long passes of the season in the 3-4-2-1 win over Chelsea — a worrying sign for Liverpool, who have struggled when opponents deploy direct, aerial strategies.

Player Radar: Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson has been patient since his £37.5m move to Nottingham Forest from Ipswich. He earned his first Premier League start against Wolves on Wednesday and provided the assist for the winner; that display should put him in contention to start again against Everton on Saturday.

Live Radar: what’s on Sky this weekend
Saturday Night Football: Leeds v Liverpool, kick-off 5:30pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
Super Sunday: Brighton v West Ham (2pm) and Fulham v Crystal Palace (4:30pm) on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
Monday Night Football: Wolves v Manchester United, kick-off 8pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.

Read last week’s Radar
Last week’s column previewed Moisés Caicedo’s midfield duel with Declan Rice at Stamford Bridge — a tie that ended with an unnecessary red card and a result that ultimately favoured Arsenal.