Ireland head into Saturday’s headline autumn clash with South Africa in Dublin as sizeable underdogs, but recent meetings suggest the Springboks should not be complacent. Rassie Erasmus’ side have looked powerful in the autumn window, opening with a 61-7 win over Japan at Wembley before recording 32-17 and 32-14 wins in France and Italy — matches in which they were often reduced to 14 men after red cards. Their comeback victory over Six Nations champions France in Paris underlined the squad’s depth and resilience.
Ireland’s autumn form has been more mixed. They began undercooked in Chicago, beaten 26-13 by New Zealand after a controversial early red card for Tadhg Beirne, followed by a scrappy 41-10 win over Japan in Dublin and a much-improved 46-19, record win over Australia, when Mack Hansen grabbed a first-half hat-trick. That surge against the Wallabies was a clear lift, though questions remain about how much Australia’s fatigue played a part.
Many still rate South Africa among the world’s best despite a Rugby Championship in which they were below their best. The autumn, however, has been a reminder of their power and talent. On paper they look formidable, but the recent head-to-head gives Ireland cause for optimism: Ireland have won four of the last five Tests between the countries — in Dublin in 2017 and 2022, at the 2023 World Cup in Paris, and in Durban in 2024, with South Africa’s only victory in that run a 27-20 Pretoria win in 2024 that was heavily influenced by TMO calls.
Since Erasmus left Munster in 2017 Ireland have frequently had the measure of the Springboks. The 2022–23 period included a 17-Test winning run that took Andy Farrell’s side to world No 1 and made them favourites for the World Cup. Ireland are not currently at those same heights and face some talk of decline; beating the reigning world No 1 in Dublin would be a statement, but it would demand one of Ireland’s best collective displays in some time.
Defence coach Simon Easterby was candid about the task ahead, saying the squad will build on positives from Australia but must get tougher, improve stopping tries when opponents reach the 22, and be better with and without the ball. He reported open, honest conversations in camp and growing resilience after a heavy travel schedule that included Chicago. Injuries have impacted selection: Ulster centre Stuart McCloskey is out with a groin issue, while flanker Josh van der Flier and centre Garry Ringrose are expected to return from hamstring problems. Training mood has been upbeat ahead of the Aviva Stadium clash.
History and recent results suggest this will be a tightly contested Test. South Africa are formidable, but Ireland have repeatedly proved they can beat them — the match in Dublin is finely poised.