Our football betting expert Jones Knows runs through every Sky Bet Championship fixture on Good Friday and highlights his top plays.
Middlesbrough vs Millwall, Friday 12.30pm (live)
Middlesbrough have slipped, winning only two of their last seven and seeing the gap to Ipswich shrink from seven points to two, but the underlying numbers still favour them. Over that run Boro have led the xG battle by around +1.4 per game, suggesting they’ve been unlucky and should reassert themselves. Expect Middlesbrough to edge this one.
Score prediction: 2-1
Birmingham vs Blackburn, Friday 3pm (live)
Birmingham start quickly at St Andrew’s and are one of the division’s best first-half sides, creating plenty of pre-break xG and scoring early at home (only Hull and Ipswich have more first-half home goals). Rather than a 90-minute punt, backing Birmingham to be ahead at half-time looks the smarter route.
Score prediction: 2-1
Charlton vs Bristol City, Friday 3pm (live)
Roy Hodgson’s return to the Bristol City hotseat after 44 years makes headlines, but he inherits an injured squad and admits limited knowledge of the current group. Any short-term uplift feels fragile. Back Charlton to take advantage of a disrupted Bristol City.
Score prediction: 2-0
Leicester vs Preston, Friday 3pm (live)
Motivation is the decisive factor: Leicester are fighting for survival while Preston appear directionless with little to aim for. Gary Rowett’s teams tend to grind out results under pressure, so expect a tight, low-scoring home win.
Score prediction: 1-0
Norwich vs Portsmouth, Friday 3pm (live)
Norwich have been in red-hot form since Christmas (12 wins from 17), keeping seven clean sheets in 12 and conceding only five goals in that stretch. Portsmouth are on a three-game losing run and are missing key man Ebou Adams. The odds for a Norwich victory are generous.
Score prediction: 3-0
Jones Knows’ best bet: Norwich to win (Evens)
Oxford vs Hull, Friday 3pm (live)
Oxford have generated a large proportion of their recent xG from set-pieces—about 3.6 xG in the last five games, roughly 65% of their output—so set-piece markets appeal. Hull concede a lot from dead-ball situations and have shipped 15 goals that way this season. Michal Helik, who’s been getting chances and shots against Hull, is an attractive anytime scorer at 10/1.
Score prediction: 2-2
Jones Knows’ best bet: Michal Helik to score (10/1)
QPR vs Watford, Friday 3pm (live)
Loftus Road is the Championship’s highest-scoring venue, averaging about 3.47 goals per game with roughly 79% of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Watford’s away fixtures under Edward Still have also seen both teams score and an average of around 3.25 goals. A bet on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looks solid value.
Score prediction: 2-2
Jones Knows’ best bet: Over 2.5 goals & BTTS (Evens)
Sheffield United vs Swansea, Friday 3pm (live)
Bramall Lane hosts haven’t kept a clean sheet in nine home games, so visiting sides have regularly found a route to goal. Swansea’s top scorer Zan Vipotnik has 17 for the season and is 11/4 to score anytime—taking him as an anytime scorer is sensible given his movement and chance volume.
Score prediction: 1-2
Stoke vs Sheffield Wednesday, Friday 3pm (live)
Stoke’s form has improved since Million Manhoef returned; the last seven Stoke matches have averaged 3.7 goals with six clearing the over 2.5 line. With momentum and attacking threat, the market for Stoke to win and over 2.5 goals looks appealing.
Score prediction: 3-1
West Brom vs Wrexham, Friday 3pm (live)
Backing centre-backs scoring from set-pieces is a profitable angle here. George Campbell has three goals in his last six and times his late runs into the box well under James Morrison. Campbell is priced at 10/1 to score.
Score prediction: 2-1
Coventry vs Derby, Friday 8pm (live)
Coventry know they need 11 points from their final seven games to secure promotion, a clear target that sharpens performances. Derby have nine away wins but none against current top-half teams, suggesting they struggle against stronger opposition. Coventry to win and over 2.5 goals at 11/8 looks the best balance of value and safety.
Score prediction: 3-1
Jones Knows’ best bet: Coventry to win & over 2.5 goals (11/8)
Jones Knows’ best bets
– 1pt treble: Norwich to win; Over 2.5 & BTTS in QPR vs Watford; Coventry to win & over 2.5 (8/1)
– 1pt: Michal Helik to score (10/1)
– 1pt: George Campbell to score (10/1)
– 0.5pt double: Helik & Campbell to score (100/1)
Take stakes sensibly and treat these as suggestions rather than guarantees. Good luck.