A victory for Arsenal at Manchester City’s Etihad on Sunday would be more than a big step toward the Premier League title — it would be concrete evidence that Mikel Arteta can deliver when the season’s defining moments arrive.
This top-of-the-table meeting, shown live on Sky Sports, is not a mathematical must-win: a draw would keep City at bay but leave Arsenal with almost no margin for error in the run-in. Yet with Arteta entering the final year of his contract, a win at the benchmark side of the era would be a statement about his capacity to close out a title race against the very best.
A draw should not be treated as a satisfactory outcome. Last March Arsenal left the Etihad with a draw that was widely hailed as progress after a previous 4-1 reverse there, but City still went on to secure the title by two points, consigning Arsenal to second once again. That pattern — visible improvement but a scarcity of trophies — has been a persistent theme of Arteta’s six-and-a-half seasons in charge.
Despite obvious development across the club, silverware has been rare. There is only one trophy from his time in charge, claimed in his early months at an empty Wembley. Since then Arsenal have lost to City in a Carabao Cup final, fallen in Champions League and Europa League semi-finals, and were eliminated from the FA Cup earlier this month. Those narrow misses feed a recurring question: can Arteta get his team over the line when it matters most?
The numbers underline how fine the margins are. This season Arsenal have collected 12 points from the current top six, with only City left to play. By contrast, the typical Premier League winner since 1992 has taken roughly 18 points from their closest rivals. In none of Arteta’s five full seasons have Arsenal hit that benchmark — a reminder that improved returns against direct opponents often decide championships.
Beating elite opposition isn’t the only route to a title — dropped points at the likes of Bournemouth or draws at Wolves can be equally damaging — but high-profile wins build momentum and credibility. As pundits have noted, to win a title you often have to land a decisive blow on your rivals, and Sunday feels like a moment for Arteta and his side to do that.
Arsenal have shown they can match the best: between May 2023 and August 2024 they went 22 league games unbeaten against the old ‘big six,’ a Premier League record. Yet even that run produced little silverware. The same season they thrashed City 5-1 at the Emirates, they also dropped points in draws with eventual champions Liverpool — a microcosm of this Arsenal: capable of spectacular results, still searching for the definitive performance that marks a champion.
Comparisons with Gareth Southgate’s England — rebuilds that narrowed gaps but yielded no major trophies — have been made. For Arteta the measuring stick remains Pep Guardiola’s City: the master against whom his work is judged. With his contract situation looming, Sunday’s game carries significance beyond league arithmetic. It will test mentality, tactical steel and whether Arteta can produce the signature win that cements his credentials at Arsenal.
Watch Man City vs Arsenal on Sky Sports Premier League from 4pm on Sunday, kick-off 4.30pm.