As the 2026 season resumes in Montreal, attention turns to whether Mercedes’ new upgrade package will extend their early dominance — and whether Lewis Hamilton’s decision to step back from simulator work will sharpen his form for a Sprint weekend.
Mercedes hope visible aerodynamic changes to the W17 in Canada will turn development into lap-time gains. The team have taken four wins from four races so far, but the order tightened in Miami and rivals such as McLaren and Red Bull showed they can close the gap on a weekend with effective updates and good strategy. Toto Wolff has emphasised that development this year will be decisive, constrained by the cost cap and the scale of parts teams can bring, so the Canadian package is an important test for Mercedes’ direction.
McLaren will arrive in Montreal with more upgrades after a mixed Miami showing. The team says it has a steady pipeline of parts through Canada, Monaco and Spain as it chases the leaders. Montreal was one of McLaren’s tougher tracks last year, a race made worse by a late intra-team collision between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, but the squad believes its ongoing development push will keep it in the fight.
Red Bull made the biggest step forward in Miami, effectively running a significantly revised RB22. That progress may be scaled back this weekend — the team is targeting the European rounds for a larger upgrade jump — but Max Verstappen remains a major threat in Montreal, where he has consistently qualified and finished at the front on recent visits.
Hamilton’s weekend story has taken centre stage off-track. After two disappointing races following a promising start to his second season at Ferrari, he says he will try a different preparation method: pausing simulator sessions between races. Hamilton believes stepping away from the sim and focusing on meetings and other preparation at the factory could free him up mentally; he points to a strong weekend earlier in the year when he didn’t rely on the simulator. With only one practice session before Sprint Qualifying on a Sprint weekend, Hamilton is betting that a refreshed, less simulator-dependent approach will help him extract more from the car quickly.
The Sprint format arrives in Montreal for the first time at this venue. Sprint Qualifying on Friday evening means competitive action starts early and leaves limited on-track setup time; drivers who are willing to take early risks and push hard around the walls of the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve are likely to be rewarded. The layout’s long straights and heavy braking zones, combined with recent power-unit tweaks, should produce overtaking and close racing.
Verstappen has also had an eventful few weeks away from F1, contesting the Nurburgring 24 Hours and coming close to victory until late reliability issues. He returns focused on continuing Red Bull’s upward momentum after Miami, where he showed renewed pace and returned to the front-row mix.
Weather could be an added variable: showers are forecast on race day, raising the prospect of the new 2026 cars running in wet conditions during a Grand Prix for the first time. That would test set-up choices and tyre strategy amid the compressed Sprint-weekend schedule.
In short: Mercedes’ upgrades will be scrutinised for tangible performance gain, McLaren and Red Bull will push their development paths, and Hamilton’s experiment away from the simulator adds an intriguing subplot to a Sprint weekend where quick setup work and bold driving will matter more than ever.