Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows runs through every Sky Bet Championship match on Good Friday and shares his best bets.
Middlesbrough vs Millwall, Friday 12.30pm (live)
Middlesbrough have won just two of their last seven, cutting their seven-point gap to Ipswich to two, and Millwall can leapfrog Boro with a win. Still, underlying data favours Middlesbrough: over those seven games they’ve comfortably led the xG battle, averaging an xG supremacy of +1.4 per game. With some variance due to reverse in their favour, they should get back on track here.
Score prediction: 2-1
Birmingham vs Blackburn, Friday 3pm (live)
Birmingham start fast at St Andrew’s and are the standout first-half performers in the division, with a high pre-break xG and strong conversion before half-time (only Hull and Ipswich have more home first-half goals). Rather than backing a 90-minute result, the first-half market is appealing—Birmingham to be winning at half-time looks a smart play.
Score prediction: 2-1
Charlton vs Bristol City, Friday 3pm (live)
Roy Hodgson’s return to Bristol City after 44 years is headline-grabbing but unlikely to deliver instant improvement. He admits limited knowledge of the current squad and inherits an injury-hit group, so any managerial bounce feels fragile. Back the home win.
Score prediction: 2-0
Leicester vs Preston, Friday 3pm (live)
Motivation is everything here. Leicester are scrapping for survival while Preston are drifting with little to play for. Gary Rowett’s teams often grind out results in pressure situations; expect a low-scoring, hard-fought home win.
Score prediction: 1-0
Norwich vs Portsmouth, Friday 3pm (live)
Norwich have been the form team since Christmas (12 wins from 17) with seven clean sheets in 12 and only five goals conceded in that run. Portsmouth are struggling, have lost three on the spin and key man Ebou Adams is injured. Evens for the home win looks generous.
Score prediction: 3-0
Jones Knows’ best bet: Norwich to win (Evens)
Oxford vs Hull, Friday 3pm (live)
Oxford have generated a large share of their recent xG from set-pieces—about 3.6 xG in the last five games, over 65% of their output—making set-piece markets attractive. Hull concede a lot from set-pieces this season (high xG conceded and 15 goals via that route). Michal Helik is highlighted at 10/1 to score after a series of shots and recent goals against Hull.
Score prediction: 2-2
Jones Knows’ best bet: Michal Helik to score (10/1)
QPR vs Watford, Friday 3pm (live)
Loftus Road is the highest-scoring Championship venue, averaging 3.47 goals per game, with 79% of matches over 2.5 goals. Watford’s away games under Edward Still have all featured both teams scoring and a 3.25 goals-per-game average. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at Evens looks solid.
Score prediction: 2-2
Jones Knows’ best bet: Over 2.5 goals & BTTS (Evens)
Sheffield United vs Swansea, Friday 3pm (live)
Bramall Lane hosts are without a clean sheet in nine home games; opposing teams have found ways through regularly. Swansea’s Zan Vipotnik, the division’s top scorer with 17 goals, is priced at 11/4 to score anytime and is a sensible anytime goalscorer play given his movement and chance volume.
Score prediction: 1-2
Stoke vs Sheffield Wednesday, Friday 3pm (live)
Stoke’s form has lifted since Million Manhoef’s return; the last seven games have averaged 3.7 goals per match with six clearing the over 2.5 line. Align that attacking trend to a Stoke side with momentum and the market of Stoke to win and over 2.5 goals (10/11) is attractive.
Score prediction: 3-1
West Brom vs Wrexham, Friday 3pm (live)
Backing centre-backs on the scoresheet is a favourite angle. George Campbell has three goals in his last six games, arriving in the box on set-pieces and playing with confidence under James Morrison. Campbell is 10/1 to score.
Score prediction: 2-1
Coventry vs Derby, Friday 8pm (live)
Coventry need 11 points from their final seven to clinch promotion; that clarity sharpens performances. Derby have nine away wins this season but none against current top-half teams, so they struggle against the best. Coventry to win and over 2.5 goals at 11/8 looks the sweet spot if Coventry assert control.
Score prediction: 3-1
Jones Knows’ best bet: Coventry to win & over 2.5 goals (11/8)
Jones Knows’ best bets
– 1pt treble: Norwich to win; Over 2.5 & BTTS in QPR vs Watford; Coventry to win & over 2.5 (8/1)
– 1pt: Michal Helik to score (10/1)
– 1pt: George Campbell to score (10/1)
– 0.5pt double: Helik & Campbell to score (100/1)