Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers insight across the weekend action and tips up a 7/1 treble.
Bournemouth vs Manchester United, Friday 8pm
Bournemouth are unbeaten in 11 on 90-minute results, but the underlying numbers suggest regression. In their last five matches they’ve allowed chances worth about 9.44 expected goals — roughly 1.9 xG conceded per 90 against mid-table or below opponents. That looks unsustainable and a spot where the numbers catch up. United to win and over 1.5 goals looks attractive at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-3 | Best bet: Manchester United to win & over 1.5 goals (11/8)
Brighton vs Liverpool, Saturday 12.30pm
The Wednesday-to-12.30pm narrative (lack of prep, early start) is common but not borne out by the data. In nine previous identical turnaround scenarios, teams won eight and drew one. Liverpool’s midweek Champions League win over Galatasaray should leave them sharp. Away win available at 6/5 looks a solid angle.
Score prediction: 1-2
Fulham vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm
Kenny Tete is an aggressive full-back who commits a lot of fouls—13 in his last five starts. Jaidon Anthony wins around 1.8 fouls per 90 and will operate down that flank for Burnley. A Fulham win with Tete committing two or more fouls is priced at 5/4.
Score prediction: 2-0
Everton vs Chelsea, Saturday 5.30pm
Under Liam Rosenior, Chelsea have been hugely attacking: 17 matches averaging 3.8 goals per game and 3.6 xG per game, with 13 of those 17 going over 2.5 goals. Everton’s low-scoring reputation keeps the line tempting. Back the overs.
Score prediction: 2-3 | Best bet: Over 2.5 goals (4/5)
Leeds vs Brentford, Saturday 8pm
The draw is often overlooked but this season has produced many stalemates: draws at a 27% strike rate overall and 35% in a recent 120-game sample. Leeds have drawn seven of their last 13 as they prioritise not losing. The draw at 23/10 is good value.
Score prediction: 1-1
Newcastle vs Sunderland, Sunday 12pm
Newcastle are showing fatigue from a congested schedule (24 matches since Boxing Day). Expect them to start strongly — adrenaline and home crowd should see them win the first half — but energy can drop late, giving Sunderland a chance in the second.
Score prediction: 1-1 | Bet: Newcastle to win first half (11/10)
Aston Villa vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm
When Unai Emery’s teams meet Nuno’s, games get niggly. Nuno’s sides average around 16 fouls in these matchups. Ezri Konsa, who steps into possession and invites pressure, has been fouled in eight of his last 10 starts (about 1.8 fouls won per 90). Back Konsa to be fouled two or more times — Evens looks a fair price.
Score prediction: 2-2
Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm
High tension and stakes usually mean a healthy card count. Xavi Simons draws a lot of bookings and will roam where Forest midfielders operate. Elliott Anderson has made among the most tackles for Forest this season and leads their cards; he’s likely to pick up a booking at 5/2.
Score prediction: 1-1
Carabao Cup final — Arsenal vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm
Wembley tends to be low-scoring: across the last 49 domestic and European matches at Wembley, average goals in normal time are 1.88 and under 3.5 would have won 46/49 times. Arsenal’s big-match away record is patchy and the occasion may suppress scoring. The angle is Man City double chance with under 3.5 goals at 10/11.
Score prediction: 1-1 (Man City to win on penalties) | Best bet: Man City double chance & under 3.5 goals (10/11)
Jones Knows’ treble (1pt)
1pt on: Manchester United to win & over 1.5 goals; Over 2.5 goals in Everton vs Chelsea; Man City double chance & under 3.5 goals — 7/1 with Sky Bet
Jones Knows’ P&L 25/26: running total -44.75 units (after Matchday 30).