Jones Knows runs through the weekend fixtures with stats-led angles and a 7/1 treble.
Bournemouth vs Manchester United, Friday 8pm
Bournemouth are on an 11-match unbeaten run in 90-minute results, but underlying numbers point to a correction. Over their last five outings theyâve conceded chances worth roughly 9.44 expected goals (about 1.9 xG per 90) against mid- and lower-table sides â a rate that looks unsustainable. Manchester United should exploit that regression. Tip: Manchester United to win & over 1.5 goals (11/8).
Prediction: 1-3
Brighton vs Liverpool, Saturday 12.30pm
The âshort turnaroundâ story (midweek to 12.30pm kick-off) sounds plausible but the data doesnât back it: in nine comparable cases teams have won eight and drawn one. Liverpoolâs midweek Champions League win over Galatasaray should keep them sharp. Value: Liverpool away win (6/5).
Prediction: 1-2
Fulham vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm
Kenny Tete is an aggressive full-back, committing many fouls (13 in his last five starts). Jaidon Anthony tends to draw contact (around 1.8 fouls won per 90) and will operate on that flank for Burnley. Market angle: Fulham to win and Tete to commit 2+ fouls (5/4).
Prediction: 2-0
Everton vs Chelsea, Saturday 5.30pm
Under Liam Rosenior Chelsea have been very attack-minded: over 17 matches theyâre averaging about 3.8 goals per game and roughly 3.6 xG per game, with 13 of those 17 fixtures going over 2.5 goals. Evertonâs low-scoring tag makes the overs tempting. Best bet: Over 2.5 goals (4/5).
Prediction: 2-3
Leeds vs Brentford, Saturday 8pm
The draw has been common this season â around a 27% strike rate overall and 35% in a recent 120-game sample. Leeds have drawn seven of their last 13 as they often prioritise avoiding defeat. The draw at 23/10 offers decent value.
Prediction: 1-1
Newcastle vs Sunderland, Sunday 12pm
Newcastle are showing signs of fatigue from a congested schedule (24 matches since Boxing Day). Expect a bright, energetic start driven by home support â they should take the first-half lead â but fatigue can allow Sunderland back into the game late. Look to back Newcastle to win the first half (11/10).
Prediction: 1-1
Aston Villa vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm
Meetings between Unai Emery and Nuno EspÃrito Santo tend to be feisty. Nunoâs teams average many fouls in these fixtures (around 16), and Ezri Konsaâs style invites physical play â heâs been fouled in eight of his last 10 starts (roughly 1.8 fouls won per 90). Consider Konsa to be fouled 2+ times (Evens).
Prediction: 2-2
Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm
High-stakes, tense London derbies often produce lots of cards. Xavi Simons draws bookings and will roam where Forestâs midfielders operate; Elliott Anderson is among Forestâs leading tacklers and card-earners. Expect Anderson to pick up a booking (5/2).
Prediction: 1-1
Carabao Cup final â Arsenal vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm
Wembley finals and big domestic ties can be cagey: across the last 49 domestic and European games at Wembley, normal-time goals have averaged around 1.88, and under 3.5 goals would have won 46/49 times. Arsenalâs form in big away games is patchy and the occasion may suppress scoring. Angle: Man City double chance & under 3.5 goals (10/11). Prediction: 1-1 (Man City to win on penalties).
Jones Knows’ treble (1pt)
1pt: Manchester United to win & over 1.5 goals; Over 2.5 goals in Everton vs Chelsea; Man City double chance & under 3.5 goals â priced 7/1 with Sky Bet.
Jones Knows’ P&L 25/26: running total -44.75 units (after Matchday 30).