West Ham and Tottenham remain locked in a relegation battle with two Premier League rounds to play. The London rivals sit 18th and 17th respectively, separated by two points after Spurs drew with Leeds and West Ham lost to Arsenal. With Nottingham Forest and Leeds already safe, one of the two clubs will join Wolves and Burnley in the Championship next season.
Remaining fixtures
– Tottenham: Chelsea (away), Everton (home)
– West Ham: Newcastle (away), Leeds (home)
Opta simulations put Tottenham strongly favoured to avoid the drop. Based on 10,000 simulations, Spurs are given a relegation probability of around 19.5%, while West Ham’s chance sits near 80.5%. Opta’s expected final points project Spurs to finish on about 40 points and West Ham on about 39 — a scenario that implies Spurs could survive with two draws while the Hammers are expected to win one and lose one.
How the picture shifted this season
West Ham’s relegation probability peaked in January at roughly 89.6% after a nine-game winless run. At that point Spurs were comfortably ahead in the table and faced almost no risk. Spurs then endured a long poor spell of their own — a 15-game winless run — which pushed their relegation risk up through the spring. The balance swung again more recently as Tottenham’s form improved under Roberto De Zerbi while West Ham lost momentum following consecutive defeats to Brentford and Arsenal.
Fixture difficulty and form
Both clubs have challenging away trips next. West Ham travel to St James’ Park and Tottenham go to Stamford Bridge, with Spurs then hosting Everton and the Hammers finishing at home to Leeds.
History suggests the fixtures may not be directly comparable. West Ham have enjoyed reasonable recent results at Newcastle, including a 3-1 win at the London Stadium in November and wins at St James’ Park in recent seasons. By contrast, Spurs have struggled historically at Stamford Bridge: their 3-1 win in April 2018 remains their only Premier League victory at Chelsea in more than 30 attempts, giving an exceptionally low win rate at that ground.
Practical factors that could influence outcomes
– Chelsea’s form has been poor for months, which could help Spurs; they have also just had a long losing run and may face fixture congestion if involved in the FA Cup final only days before hosting Tottenham. That could leave Chelsea fatigued or under extra pressure to secure a European position.
– Newcastle have fewer incentives late in the season and are primarily playing for pride, but they can still be dangerous opponents.
– Tottenham’s final match against Everton is not guaranteed to be straightforward — Everton are capable of producing strong performances and may still have targets of their own.
– Leeds, in theory safe, have shown in recent games they will still compete hard, so West Ham should not expect an easy finale.
What De Zerbi has changed at Tottenham
De Zerbi’s arrival has coincided with a notable defensive turnaround for Spurs. They have gone several games unbeaten and conceded only five goals in five matches during his early tenure. Statistically they have reduced expected goals against and shots on target allowed compared with their form before his appointment. The manager’s impact appears to have restored belief and structure, and improved goalkeeping performances have contributed to their improved numbers.
Other concerns
– Spurs’ home form is a worry: they have not won at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in a prolonged stretch, their longest winless run at home in decades.
– West Ham’s confidence has dipped after consecutive defeats, but a two-game recovery could still keep them up depending on Tottenham’s results.
What would probably be enough
Given the current two-point gap and Tottenham’s superior goal difference, two draws for Spurs would likely be enough for safety. For West Ham, the margin for error is slimmer: they need better results across the two games and to hope Spurs drop points.
Conclusion
Opta simulations favour Tottenham to stay up, largely because of recent form and goal difference. But fixture history, Chelsea and Newcastle’s motivations, and the tight margins mean the final two matches will decide this closely fought shoot-out. Expect the outcome to come down to fine margins — momentum, discipline and finishing in two high-pressure games.