In his latest column, Sky Sports’ Paul Merson says the Premier League title race could come down to goal difference — with Manchester City needing a big win over Burnley to take charge.
Sunday’s 2-1 win for City at the Etihad left Pep Guardiola’s side three points behind Arsenal with a game in hand. City sit on +36 goal difference to Arsenal’s +37, but have scored more; any victory at Burnley would move City above Arsenal, yet Merson argues they need more than a narrow win to seize control.
“It will come down to how much Man City beat Burnley by”
Arsenal’s performance at the Etihad was solid, but they lost a game they couldn’t afford to lose. From nowhere, Manchester City will be top on Wednesday if results go their way — and that’s worrying. Arsenal no longer hold an advantage. After City’s trip to Burnley, Arsenal have two games before City next play; they could be six points clear again and must make that count.
Arsenal must beat Newcastle and Fulham to put pressure back on City — it’s essential, Merson says.
The next games in the Premier League title race
– Wednesday April 22: Burnley vs Man City, live on Sky Sports, kick-off 8pm
– Saturday April 25: Arsenal vs Newcastle, live on Sky Sports, kick-off 5.30pm
– Saturday May 2: Arsenal vs Fulham, live on Sky Sports, kick-off 5.30pm
– Monday May 4: Everton vs Man City, live on Sky Sports, kick-off 8pm
City’s remaining fixtures don’t look too tough on paper. They face Everton and Brentford — both fighting for European places — while other matches look more straightforward: Crystal Palace at home (who may be focused on a Conference League final) and Aston Villa on the final day (by then Villa may have secured Champions League qualification and priority could be the Europa League final). For Merson, the decisive factor is how many goals City put past Burnley.
“If they don’t score many, and the goal difference between the two teams is one or two goals, Arsenal are back in the title race. If City don’t rip Burnley up by four or five, they’re not going to do that against Everton in their next game.”
Everton, Brentford and Bournemouth are strong defensively, so the title could indeed be settled by goal difference.
“Martinelli has to be switched on for Man City winner”
Merson says Arsenal were unlucky at the Etihad — Kai Havertz slipped when he should have scored, Eberechi Eze struck the post and Gabriel’s header came off the post rather than hitting O’Reilly’s arm for a potential penalty. But Merson is critical of defensive lapses.
“You’ve got to pick people up,” he said, pointing to Gabriel Martinelli failing to track Nico O’Reilly’s run for City’s winner. Marc Guehi isn’t the issue — he’s often positioned on the edge of his box — but players switched off and that’s costly. At a club like Arsenal, you get told to do your defensive duties once; you can’t keep being reminded.
Martinelli should have stopped the danger earlier. Even if O’Reilly had the length of the pitch, Martinelli needed to nip the run in the bud and be aware of the threat.