It is sixth versus third in the first Championship play-off semi-final, but this feels far from a predictable tie. Hull only forced their way into the play-offs on the final day, while Millwall were even in the automatic-promotion mix for much of the season, eventually finishing third. For long stretches both clubs were trading places in and around the top six; Hull sat above Millwall as recently as February. Each side has beaten the other away this season — Hull won 3-1 at The Den in December, Millwall returned the favour with a 3-1 win at the MKM Stadium in March.
Hull vs Millwall schedule
– Semi-final first leg — MKM Stadium — Friday May 8, kick-off 8pm
– Semi-final second leg — The Den — Monday May 11, kick-off 8pm
– Final — Saturday May 23
Story of the match (key facts)
– In 17 of the last 20 seasons, the team finishing third has beaten the team finishing sixth in the Championship play-off semi-finals.
– The last team to finish sixth and reach the final were Derby in 2019; the last to be promoted from sixth were Blackpool in 2010.
– The team finishing third have reached the final in 13 of the last 15 seasons — six have won promotion.
– Millwall have never won a second-tier play-off game (D1 L5) — they are the only club (of 42) to play at least three play-off games at this level and never win.
– Millwall had the best away record in the Championship this season: 41 away points and only four defeats.
– Hull have won both their previous Championship play-off campaigns (2008, 2016).
– Hull scored the fifth-most goals this season (70) from the fifth-fewest shots (515).
“It is sixth versus third, but it’s not a predictable tie,” Don Goodman said on the Sky Sports Essential EFL podcast. “The gap isn’t as big as usual in terms of points, but also in terms of what these two teams are capable of when they are operating close to their best. Hull can score goals against anybody; they have a wonderful blend in attack and will craft chances. But flip it on its head and they also concede a lot of chances and goals. Millwall are a much more solid outfit without the ball. I think Millwall are going to be a force in these play-offs. I would just about back them to come through this tie, but I don’t anticipate it will be straightforward.”
Andy Hinchcliffe added: “For Millwall to finish third is pretty incredible. To be as consistent as they have in this league is extraordinary. Hull have overachieved — their underlying stats suggest they should be lower down — but they are challenging for promotion. Millwall being at home in the second leg is an advantage. They go into the tie in better form, but Hull have the ability to win games you don’t expect them to win. Millwall might be the better unit, but Hull have players that can hurt you. Over the course of two games, Millwall should have enough to make it to Wembley, but Hull’s unpredictability means they can’t be ruled out.”
The key battle & the wildcard
Oli McBurnie is Hull’s standout threat. Despite an injury that sidelined him for several weeks late in the season, the 29-year-old returned strongly after a season in Spain, finishing with 17 goals and seven assists from 32 starts. His two goals on the final day clinched Hull a play-off spot. McBurnie has also won the sixth most aerial duels in the Championship (148), and his duel with Millwall centre-back Jake Cooper could prove decisive.
Jake Cooper is a club figure for Millwall, at the Lions since 2017. He ranks highly for aerial duels won (second in the league this year with 271), clearances and headed clearances — a key defensive presence. Both players scored in the two league meetings this season: McBurnie in the 3-1 win at The Den, Cooper in Millwall’s 3-1 win at Hull.
Femi Azeez is the wildcard for Millwall. The winger has been one of the division’s standout performers, nominated for Championship Player of the Season and named in the Sky Sports Championship Team of the Season. His creativity and goals from wide areas have been central to Millwall’s attack and could be crucial across two legs.
Managers and mindset
Hull manager Sergej Jakirovic will draw on prior two-legged experience. “It’s a completely different approach,” he said, referencing his time managing Dinamo Zagreb in a Champions League play-off. “You have 180 minutes. I have experience from Dinamo when we had a play-off to reach the Champions League. You have to be very wise. The first game will not decide everything. There are no away goals. It’s who will handle the pressure better. Monday will be everything.”
Hull captain Lewie Coyle, who grew up watching Hull’s previous Wembley successes, is driven by the chance to lead his hometown club back to the top flight. “To be club captain means everything,” he said. “It would be beyond my wildest dreams to captain Hull to the Premier League. I don’t take it for granted.”
Millwall manager Alex Neil emphasised confidence from their away form and a no-fear mentality: “Play-off games are different because they’re essentially knockout matches. We’ve got two legs to try and get the result we need. Our away form has been the best in the division, so we’re hoping to get a positive result in the first leg and then bring it back to The Den. The key thing is making sure the occasion doesn’t get the better of you. There’s no major change in style depending on the venue — we approach games the same way.”
Defender Tristan Crama reiterated Millwall’s intent to attack at the MKM: “We know it’s two games, but we’re just focusing on Friday first. We had such a good record away this season, so we’re going there to attack the game and win it. We’re not going there to try and hold a score. The mentality in the squad is amazing. We’re going to attack the game like we attacked the previous 46 games.”
Conclusion
This tie combines Millwall’s defensive solidity and excellent away record with Hull’s attacking unpredictability and match-winners. Key individual battles — McBurnie versus Cooper, and stopping Azeez — plus which side handles the pressure over 180 minutes, will likely decide who reaches Wembley.
Championship play-off schedule
Play-off semi-final first legs
– Hull vs Millwall — Friday May 8, 8pm
– Middlesbrough vs Southampton — Saturday May 9, 12:30pm
Play-off semi-final second legs
– Millwall vs Hull — Monday May 11, 8pm
– Southampton vs Middlesbrough — Tuesday May 12, 8pm
Play-off final
– Saturday May 23, Wembley Stadium