Lewis Hamilton arrives at Ferrari still searching for his first win in red. With a record 105 Grand Prix victories overall, his most recent triumph was the 2024 Belgian GP — the final win of his Mercedes era. After a podium-free 2025 (the first such season of his career), Hamilton returned to the rostrum with P3 at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix.
Method
Our data team combined two factors for every remaining round to estimate where Hamilton is most likely to score his maiden Ferrari victory: (1) Hamilton’s historical win percentage at each circuit, and (2) Ferrari’s expected lap-time deficit to Mercedes based on car and circuit characteristics inferred from the opening three rounds. Each factor was scaled to a 0–10 score and merged into a single ranking.
Circuit history highlights
– Silverstone: Hamilton’s highest win rate at a single track, 45% (nine wins from 20 entries).
– Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve (Canada): 44% (seven wins).
– Hungaroring: 42% (eight wins).
– Lowest conversion sites: Miami, Zandvoort and Las Vegas — Hamilton has not yet won at these venues. Miami has produced two P6/P8 finishes in its four-year history for him.
Ferrari vs Mercedes expected deficit
– Smallest estimated gaps: Monaco (0.06%), Hungary (0.07%), Barcelona-Catalunya and Singapore (0.12% each).
– Largest gaps: Spa-Francorchamps (0.54%) and Monza (0.51%) — high power-sensitive layouts that magnify Ferrari’s relative shortfall.
Combined ranking — top opportunities
1. Hungaroring — 9.6: strong historical record for Hamilton and one of the smallest expected Ferrari deficits.
2. Barcelona-Catalunya — 8.2: good track record and circuit characteristics that suit Ferrari.
3. Monaco — 8.1: minimal predicted deficit and strong Hamilton history.
4. Singapore — 8.1.
5. Austin — 7.7.
6. Madrid — 7.4 (score uses Hamilton’s average win rate because it’s a new circuit).
7. Mexico City — 7.1 (Ferrari’s most recent win there was with Carlos Sainz in 2024).
Least likely venues
– Spa-Francorchamps: lowest combined score at 1.8 despite Hamilton’s 2024 win, driven by a large expected Ferrari deficit.
– Monza: 2.2 — low probability despite Ferrari tradition there.
– Las Vegas and Miami: also near the bottom, with Miami scoring 3.9.
Outlook
The European swing kicks off at Monaco (June 5–7) then Barcelona (June 12–14), both ranked highly by this analysis. Overall, the Hungaroring emerges as Hamilton’s single best statistical opportunity in 2026 to record his first victory for Ferrari, with Barcelona, Monaco and Singapore also offering strong prospects. These circuits are the ones to watch as the season progresses.