Amid the noise around ‘Spygate’, it’s easy to forget Hull City have been the story on the pitch all season. From being one game from dropping to League One last May to being one victory away from the Premier League, the Tigers’ turnaround is extraordinary.
Hull finished sixth and became the first team in that position to reach the Championship play-off final since 2019. But their season looks even stranger when you view it through the lens of modern analytics. Expected Goals (xG) — a dataset now central to how many judge performance — paints a completely different picture: by xG, Hull should have been one of the division’s worst sides, picking up about 13 fewer points and conceding roughly 16 more goals. In other words, the relegation they barely avoided last year should have happened again, according to the numbers.
Those figures are striking because they sit against a very leaky defence. Hull conceded 66 goals in the regular season — more than relegated Oxford United — and only three teams in the bottom half leaked more. They also conceded the second-highest number of shots on target in the Championship. Their first-choice keeper, Ivor Pandur, has a 69.2% save rate, a solid but not elite figure and not inside the top 10 among Championship keepers, so extraordinary shot-stopping does not fully explain the gap between the data and the results.
So how have Hull stayed afloat and then surged? Luck has played a huge role. Opponents repeatedly failed to convert high-probability chances against them. Hull’s season includes a long reel of missed opportunities by rivals: in December’s 2-0 win over play-off rivals Wrexham, Kieffer Moore spurned two gilt-edged chances worth about 0.9 xG; in the 1-1 draw with Oxford United a late close-range chance was put wide; West Brom missed an open goal against Hull when Isaac Price blazed over. Swansea’s top scorer Zan Vipotnik avoided scoring an own goal at Hull, and Norwich’s Josh Sargent missed an excellent chance in a match Hull turned around to win.
Statistically, Hull have benefited more than any other Championship side from opponent wastefulness. Opponents failed to convert 10 chances this season that were assessed at 50% or greater probability of being scored — the most such ‘let-offs’ in the division — and four of those opportunities were estimated at 70% likelihood, twice as many as the next teams on that list.
But it isn’t only fortune. Hull have been remarkably efficient in attack. They boast the best shot conversion rate in the Championship, largely thanks to Oli McBurnie and Joe Gelhardt, who have 17 and 15 league goals respectively. Both rank first and second for shots on target, despite other forwards in the top 10 having more overall shots. That clinical finishing has turned half-chances into points.
McBurnie summed up the club’s mindset: they pride themselves on being clinical and ruthless in front of goal, and while analytics matter to some, points are the ultimate measure for the players.
Fine margins have often gone Hull’s way. On the final day McBurnie’s goal that propelled them into the play-offs involved very tight offside calls — the Professional Game Match Officials (PGMO) judged him onside by mere centimetres — another example of luck aligning for the Tigers.
Tactics and leadership under manager Sergej Jakirović also help explain the unpredictability that frustrates analytics. Players praise Jakirović’s adaptability — his willingness to change formations, sometimes mid-game, and to switch between back four and back five when needed. McBurnie described him as a winner who will do whatever is necessary rather than sticking stubbornly to one plan. That flexibility makes Hull a tricky opponent to prepare for and gives them a strategic edge.
Spygate has complicated preparations for the final, with suggestions Hull have had to prepare for multiple tactical scenarios while their opponents could focus on just one. Paradoxically, Hull’s tactical fluidity turns that uncertainty into an advantage — they are, in the manager’s words, a difficult team to prepare for because they do not set up the same way twice.
So whether you label Hull fortunate, efficient, or tactically clever, the result is the same: they are one win away from promotion. Whatever combination of luck, finishing and managerial pragmatism has produced this outcome, the Tigers have earned their shot at the Premier League.
Watch Middlesbrough vs Hull City in the Championship play-off final this Saturday, live on Sky Sports from 2.30pm, kick-off 3.30pm.