With a record 105 Grand Prix victories, Lewis Hamilton is one of F1’s most successful drivers. He is yet to win for Ferrari; his last victory came at the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix, the final season of his partnership with Mercedes. After a 2025 campaign without a podium — the first such season in his career — Hamilton ended that drought with third place at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix.
To identify where he’s most likely to claim his maiden Scuderia win, our data team examined two factors for each remaining round: Hamilton’s historical win percentage at each circuit, and Ferrari’s expected lap-time deficit to Mercedes (based on estimated car and circuit characteristics from the first three rounds). These were converted to scores out of 10 and combined into a single metric ranking the likelihood of a Hamilton victory at every venue.
Hamilton’s win percentages by circuit
– Silverstone: highest win rate, 45% (nine wins from 20 entries) — the most wins by any driver at a single track.
– Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve (Canada): 44% (seven wins).
– Hungaroring (Hungary): 42% (eight wins).
– Lowest success rates: Miami, Zandvoort (Netherlands) and Las Vegas — Hamilton has not won at these venues. Miami has produced three P6s and one P8 in its four-year history for him.
Ferrari vs Mercedes expected deficit
– Smallest estimated lap-time deficits to Mercedes: Monaco (0.06%), Hungary (0.07%), Barcelona-Catalunya and Singapore (0.12% each).
– Largest deficits: Spa-Francorchamps (0.54%) and Monza (0.51%). High power-unit sensitivity tracks like Spa and Monza amplify Ferrari’s relative disadvantage.
Combined metric — where Hamilton’s best chances lie
Using the combined score from Hamilton’s track history and Ferrari’s expected competitiveness, the top opportunities are:
1. Hungaroring — top score 9.6: strong for Hamilton historically and favourable for Ferrari’s pace relative to Mercedes.
2. Barcelona-Catalunya — 8.2: historically successful for Hamilton and a circuit suited to Ferrari’s characteristics.
3. Monaco — 8.1: low expected deficit to Mercedes and good history for Hamilton.
4. Singapore — 8.1.
5. Austin — 7.7.
6. Madrid — 7.4 (Madrid’s score used Hamilton’s average win rate since it’s a new circuit).
7. Mexico City — 7.1 (Ferrari’s most recent win came here in 2024 with Carlos Sainz).
Tracks where a Hamilton victory is least likely
– Spa-Francorchamps: lowest metric at 1.8 (despite Hamilton’s own 2024 win there), reflecting a large predicted Ferrari deficit.
– Monza: 2.2 — the second-lowest chance despite being a historic Ferrari venue.
– Las Vegas: among the lower chances; Hamilton has yet to win there.
– Miami Grand Prix: low on the list with a score of 3.9.
Looking ahead, Monaco (June 5–7) and Barcelona (June 12–14) begin the European stretch of the season and rank highly in the data. According to this analysis, Hungary stands out as Hamilton’s single best statistical opportunity to secure his first victory for Ferrari in 2026, with Barcelona, Monaco and Singapore also offering strong prospects. The numbers suggest these venues are worth watching as the season progresses.