Lando Norris is the favourite to claim his first Formula 1 world title, but Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri can still take the championship at this weekend’s season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. How can each driver win?
F1 Drivers’ Championship – top three
Driver — Team — Points
1) Lando Norris — McLaren — 408
2) Max Verstappen — Red Bull — 396
3) Oscar Piastri — McLaren — 392
After strategy drama in Qatar, Norris leads Verstappen by 12 points and Piastri by 16. A race win at Yas Marina is worth 25 points.
F1 points system
Position: 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Points: 25 18 15 12 10 8 6 4 2 1
How Norris can win the title
Norris’s path is straightforward: a podium in Abu Dhabi guarantees the championship regardless of what Verstappen and Piastri do.
If he finishes fourth, he needs Verstappen to finish no higher than second. If Norris fails to score, he would need Verstappen to finish outside the podium and Piastri to be third or lower.
Norris will be world champion if the following happens…
Lando Norris — Max Verstappen — Oscar Piastri
1st — Does not matter — Does not matter
2nd — Does not matter — Does not matter
3rd — Does not matter — Does not matter
4th — 2nd or lower — Does not matter
5th — 2nd or lower — Does not matter
6th — 2nd or lower — 2nd or lower
7th — 2nd or lower — 2nd or lower
8th — 3rd or lower — 2nd or lower
9th — 4th or lower — 2nd or lower
10th — 4th or lower — 3rd or lower
11th or lower — 4th or lower — 3rd or lower
How Verstappen can win the title
Verstappen must finish on the podium to have any chance of a fifth consecutive drivers’ title. Practically, he needs to win and for Norris to be off the podium, though other podium permutations can also work.
Verstappen will be world champion if the following happens…
Max Verstappen — Lando Norris — Oscar Piastri
1st — 4th or lower — Does not matter
2nd — 8th or lower — 3rd or lower
3rd — 9th or lower — 2nd or lower
How Piastri can win the title
Piastri must finish first or second to have a shot. If he wins, Norris must be sixth or lower. If Piastri is second, Norris needs to finish 10th or lower and Verstappen must be fourth or lower.
Piastri will be world champion if the following happens…
Oscar Piastri — Lando Norris — Max Verstappen
1st — 6th or lower — Does not matter
2nd — 10th or lower — 4th or lower
What happens if the top two are tied on points?
A tie is possible. For example, if Piastri does not win, Verstappen finishes second and Norris is seventh, Verstappen and Norris would both reach 414 points. Ties are decided by countback: number of wins, then seconds, and so on.
Remarkably, Norris, Verstappen and Piastri each have seven wins this season. The next tie-breaker is second places: Norris leads with eight seconds, Verstappen has six and Piastri four. In any tie involving Norris, he would come out on top. It is impossible for Verstappen and Piastri to be tied on points if they occupy the top two places in the final standings.
How many times has the championship leader not won?
This will be the 32nd time the F1 Drivers’ Championship is decided at the final race in the sport’s 75-year history. Only nine of those occasions saw the championship leader entering the finale fail to win the title. The last was Sebastian Vettel overturning a deficit in 2010.
When the championship lead has been overturned
1950 – Giuseppe Farina
1964 – John Surtees
1976 – James Hunt
1981 – Nelson Piquet
1983 – Nelson Piquet
1986 – Alain Prost
1997 – Jacques Villeneuve
2007 – Kimi Räikkönen
2010 – Sebastian Vettel
When is the championship trophy given?
The Drivers’ Championship trophy is presented at the FIA Prize Gala, not at the season finale. The Constructors’ Championship is also awarded at the gala; McLaren secured that title at the Singapore Grand Prix. This year’s FIA Prize Gala is in Tashkent, Uzbekistan on December 12.
Image: Max Verstappen with the Drivers’ Championship trophy in 2024
The 2025 Formula 1 season concludes with the title-deciding Abu Dhabi Grand Prix live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday. Stream Sky Sports with NOW — no contract, cancel anytime.