Another weekend produced a twist in the title race: after Hearts and Rangers won on Saturday, Celtic were surprisingly beaten by Dundee United on Sunday. Far from feeling like random chance, the result reinforced a wider pattern this season — whoever plays later often struggles to match the earlier positive outcomes.
The top three have all won on the same weekend only once this campaign, back on January 10/11. Since then there have been several occasions when one or more of the big three dropped points after rivals had already posted favourable results. With post-split head-to-heads looming, at least one of Hearts, Rangers or Celtic is likely to falter in three of the remaining seven pre-split rounds, so the run-in looks set to be jagged.
Does playing first actually matter?
Managers will say they only focus on their own team, but players and staff monitor scores, watch highlights and digest every twist in the table. Even if a club cannot control another kick-off, the timing of fixtures can shift the psychological balance. When one side plays earlier and gets a positive result, the teams playing later face an added mental burden: they know precisely what is required and may over-press or tighten up in response.
Recent examples this season underline the point:
– Celtic were beaten by Dundee United on a Sunday after Hearts and Rangers had picked up wins on Saturday.
– Hearts lost to Kilmarnock on a Saturday evening after Celtic had already beaten Motherwell earlier that day.
– The Old Firm drew after Hearts had taken three points the previous round.
– Hearts’ Saturday win over Falkirk was followed by a Rangers draw and a Celtic defeat the next day.
That run of “follow-up” slip-ups — and the fact the only weekend all three won came in January — suggests psychology is as important as coincidence. Fixture sequencing isn’t fully confirmed for the post-split phase, so the precise impact remains to be seen, but if the current trend persists it’s probable all three challengers will drop points before the split.
Key pre-split fixtures to watch
– April 4: Rangers vs Dundee United
– April 5: Livingston vs Hearts (2pm)
– April 5: Dundee vs Celtic (4.30pm)
– April 11: Hearts vs Motherwell
– April 11: Celtic vs St Mirren
– April 12: Falkirk vs Rangers (noon)
Rangers are first up after the international break, hosting Dundee United on Saturday April 4. By the time Hearts travel to Livingston at 2pm the following day — televised live — they could find themselves toppled from the summit for the first time since September. Celtic’s visit to Dundee at 4.30pm could then open up a sizeable gap by kick-off, leaving them needing a response rather than setting the pace. The subsequent weekend again hands the initiative to the side kicking off earlier, showing how scheduling repeatedly advantages the team that plays first.
Does title-winning experience offset the scheduling effect?
Celtic sit behind their rivals but possess a much deeper reservoir of title-winning experience. Players such as James Forrest and Callum McGregor are used to lifting trophies; there are 62 Scottish top-flight winners’ medals inside the Celtic dressing room, rising to 73 when coaching staff are counted. That institutional know-how can help when coping with pressure.
By contrast, Hearts’ Craig Gordon is their only squad member with multiple title medals (earned at Celtic), and Rangers have just one player — James Tavernier — who has won the Scottish championship recently. Those disparities reflect Celtic’s recent dominance, but being the hunted is a different psychological test to being the hunter.
This Celtic squad have rarely had to chase. It’s the first time they haven’t led at this stage since Rangers in 2021, and they have not been outside the top two after 31 games since 1995. Only once in the last 17 years has a side leading at this point surrendered the title (Celtic in 2009). Still, the club has navigated tricky finishes in recent seasons under Philippe Clement and Giovanni van Bronckhorst, so they have experience of dealing with pressure even if the current role reversal is unusual.
As the most competitive title race in years approaches its finale, psychology, scheduling and experience will all matter. Playing first offers the chance to set the narrative and pile pressure on rivals; playing later gives the opportunity to react, but brings the weight of expectation. Whether Celtic’s habitual mentality under pressure will flip them back into hunters remains the central question as the run-in unfolds.