Content:
Welcome to The Radar, a Sky Sports column in which Nick Wright uses a blend of data and opinion to shed light on need-to-know stories from up and down the Premier League. This week:
– Why are Brighton struggling?
– Palace banking on Strand Larsen
– A player to watch this weekend
Make or break for Hurzeler?
Brighton’s meeting with bitter rivals Crystal Palace, live on Sky Sports on Sunday, has taken on extra significance for Fabian Hurzeler after his side squandered another late lead against Everton.
A run of one win in 11 is testing the patience of some fans. Most games have been decided by narrow margins: Brighton have only beaten an opponent by more than one goal once this season (at Anfield), and six of the 11 matches have been draws. The upshot is a slide from fifth to 13th in two months.
Hurzeler remains optimistic. “I’m quite convinced that at the end of the season we will be where we want to be,” he said this week. A first win of his tenure against Palace, another side currently out of sorts, would help ease concerns. Any other outcome, though, would intensify pressure on the 32-year-old, who guided Brighton to eighth last season but faced boos from some fans after the Everton draw and the loss to Fulham.
Underlying data highlights some of Brighton’s issues. A recent spike in expected goals against (xGA) shows defensive vulnerability, while their rolling five-game average of expected goals for (xG) has trended downward. For the first time since Hurzeler’s opening months last season, Brighton are giving away more chances than they are creating, albeit with slight improvement in the last two games where they had the better opportunities against Fulham and Everton.
Conceding stoppage-time goals has been costly and visible, but the metrics offer an explanation for Hurzeler’s belief that a return to previous performance levels is possible. Still, creativity and finishing have become concerns. Brighton have had the sixth-most sequences of 10+ passes this season (258), yet none have ended in a goal. They will need more imagination against a Palace side that typically cedes possession; Brighton lost the same fixture last season despite 65% possession.
Goalscoring regression is stark. Last season Brighton scored 66 goals while overperforming their xG (59.15). This season the pendulum has swung: they have scored nearly four goals fewer than expected. Only relegation-threatened Wolves and Palace have underperformed their xG by a larger margin.
Hurzeler pointed to Palace’s January spending but said he is not jealous. Still, Brighton remain heavily reliant on Danny Welbeck. The 35-year-old has eight Premier League goals; no other Brighton player has more than three. Alternatives up front are limited: the exciting but raw 18-year-old Charalampos Kostoulas, and Georginio Rutter, who many see as better suited to a No.10 role. Depth on the flanks is an issue too, with injuries to Yankuba Minteh and Kaoru Mitoma hurting options. Brighton have lost the sixth-most days to injury in the Premier League this season, with Yasin Ayari the latest casualty.
There are mitigating factors for Hurzeler, but more dropped points against Palace — a team Brighton have beaten only twice in 13 Premier League meetings — would be hard for fans to stomach given recent form.
Will Strand Larsen step up?
If Brighton have been struggling, Palace have their own turmoil. In under a month they became the first Premier League side to lose to sixth-tier opposition in the FA Cup, lost their captain to Manchester City on the eve of a game, and had their manager confirm his departure at season’s end — all while going nine Premier League games without a win.
They head to the Amex hoping late January additions can spark a turnaround. Evan Guessand arrived on loan from Aston Villa, and Jørgen Strand Larsen was signed from Wolves for around £48m — an expensive fee for a player who had one goal in 22 appearances this term. Palace are banking on recapturing the first-season version of Strand Larsen, when he scored 14 non-penalty goals and ranked alongside top strikers. A goalscoring debut at the Amex — and with Jean-Philippe sidelined by a knee injury — would quickly win over doubters, especially after the striker missed a move to AC Milan on Deadline Day.
Player Radar: Who else to keep an eye on
After Brighton vs Crystal Palace on Super Sunday comes Liverpool vs Manchester City. Antoine Semenyo was outstanding on his last visit to Anfield with Bournemouth in August, scoring twice. Watch to see if he can cause damage again in new colours.
Live Radar: What’s on Sky this weekend?
Friday Night Football: Leeds vs Nottingham Forest, live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event from 7.30pm, kick-off 8pm.
Saturday Night Football: Newcastle vs Brentford, live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event from 5pm, kick-off 5.30pm.
Sunday: Brighton vs Crystal Palace from 1pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event, kick-off 2pm, followed by Liverpool vs Man City at 4.30pm.
Read last week’s Radar column
Last column examined whether Senne Lammens is the goalkeeper Manchester United needed and looked at Ezri Konsa’s passing for Aston Villa.