Welcome to The Debrief, a Sky Sports column in which Adam Bate uses a blend of data and opinion to reflect on some of the key stories from the latest Premier League matches. This week:
– Arsenal’s open-play expected goals
– Bowen now in impressive company
– Brobbey’s hold-up play stands out
Arsenal’s lack of creativity from open play
Arsenal endured a miserable weekend; a home defeat to Bournemouth coupled with Manchester City’s win at Chelsea means the title is back in the balance. But the performance was more alarming than the result. While Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth played some good football, Mikel Arteta’s team relied heavily on set-pieces. An expected goals total from open play of just 0.18 reflects how little the Gunners created.
The focus on set-plays has been a theme all season. Arsenal have been masters at it, creating and scoring more than anyone from such situations. But there is an opportunity cost to sending defenders up each time a foul is won in the middle of the field. Declan Rice’s delivery has been so good that the tactic has made sense for much of the campaign, but it did not feel that way on Saturday.
In total, 26 minutes and 48 seconds of the match were spent with Arsenal technically in possession while the ball was dead — six minutes preparing for corners and seven minutes waiting for throw-ins among that total. The game felt bitty, and it was far from an outlier. Arsenal often fail to create from open play.
Among the current top-six teams, Arsenal have had more matches this season with an open-play expected goals total of 0.3 or lower than Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea combined. It has happened six times. That is very unusual for Premier League leaders. In the previous eight seasons, the eventual winners have ranked among the top two overall for open-play creativity. Arsenal sit sixth on that metric this season and are currently below Brighton.
Does it matter? Not if they can beat City next time out — even if the goal comes from a set piece. But it helps explain why fluency is proving a problem. City look capable of going on a run; Arsenal are increasingly relying on moments and set-piece excellence rather than sustained open-play dominance.
Bowen’s goal involvements for West Ham
Jarrod Bowen will have felt West Ham’s FA Cup exit keenly after hitting the frame of the goal twice and seeing his penalty saved in the shoot-out. He played his part in a big Premier League win on Friday, though: West Ham’s 4-0 victory over Wolves moved them out of the relegation zone. Bowen hit the post again but provided two assists, taking him to eight assists and eight goals in the league this season.
Since signing for West Ham in January 2020, Bowen ranks among the top half-dozen players in the Premier League for goal involvements. His consistency is underlined by the fact that only two other players — Mohamed Salah and Bruno Fernandes — have registered more than 10 goal involvements in each of the past six seasons.
If Bowen can finish the season strongly and add another four goal involvements in the remaining fixtures, he would edge toward an even more exclusive club. Erling Haaland is the only man to hit 20 goal involvements in each of the last three Premier League seasons; Bowen looks best placed to challenge that sort of sustained output for West Ham. It is a testament to his reliability, robustness and role as a talisman.
Brobbey’s hold-up play for Sunderland
Tottenham slipped to a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland in Roberto De Zerbi’s first game in charge, and Brian Brobbey’s influence was clear even though he did not score. “There is none better in the Premier League at holding the ball up,” said former Sunderland striker Don Goodman on co-commentary. The statistics back that eye test.
Brobbey has held the ball up 48 times this season. Only Viktor Gyokeres has done so more often in the Premier League, but Brobbey’s success rate at retaining possession after receiving the ball in those situations is higher. Sunderland boss Regis Le Bris noted that Brobbey started the season needing fitness time but is now competitive physically and able to change how the team functions: “We want to play with him… Now we can kill the press.”
His total of six Premier League goals might seem modest, but all six have been the final goal of the game. Those strikes have directly won Sunderland eight points, including the winner at Newcastle. Brobbey is increasingly bringing more than finishes to the team — his hold-up play creates problems for opponents and gives Sunderland a different dimension going forwards.