Melbourne and Shanghai produced plenty of drama and two different winners across the opening rounds of 2026, with Mercedes emerging as the early benchmark. The calendar offers the first full break for teams to process those lessons and develop, and Suzuka brings several narratives to follow.
Mercedes drivers vying for advantage
Two races in and Mercedes drivers George Russell and Kimi Antonelli have already taken wins between them. Russell won in Australia and the Sprint in China, while Antonelli responded with pole in Shanghai and converted it into his first F1 victory after Russell’s Qualifying trouble. Mercedes currently enjoy a clear performance edge, making it hard to see past one of their drivers for the Drivers’ Championship at this stage. Early points may prove decisive over a season with rapid development, and Antonelli’s early success boosts both his confidence and his title credentials. Toto Wolff urges patience—he sees the pair at different maturity levels—but another strong Suzuka result from the 19-year-old would strengthen belief in his long-term potential.
Hamilton’s fresh momentum at Ferrari
China offered close racing between the two Ferrari drivers. Charles Leclerc took the Sprint while Lewis Hamilton claimed his first Ferrari podium on Sunday, suggesting Hamilton feels physically and mentally back to his best after a tough 2025. While Ferrari sit behind Mercedes, both drivers look capable of podiums and can at times challenge the leaders. With Mercedes power-units showing vulnerabilities and McLaren suffering issues, opportunities could appear. The question for Suzuka: if a window opens for a Ferrari win, which driver will seize it?
Honda’s home race
Aston Martin and Honda have had a difficult start, hit by reliability problems that limited mileage and development. The longer gap before Suzuka should help teams pinpoint fixes, and factories in Silverstone and Sakura have been busy. Honda will receive intense attention and strong local support at their first home race with Aston Martin, and they’ll be eager to demonstrate progress and extract more from the package.
How McLaren and Red Bull respond
McLaren’s season began poorly: Oscar Piastri failed to start in Melbourne and both McLarens suffered separate electrical issues with the Mercedes power unit in China, forcing a double DNS. That has left McLaren short on race data to understand and optimize their car and PU. Despite that, they still sit third in the Constructors’ standings, just ahead of Haas after a strong start from Ollie Bearman. Red Bull also struggled in Shanghai with RB22 handling difficulties and sit down the order. Both teams showed promise in testing and will see Suzuka as a chance to close the gap to the top two.
Amazing fans and an iconic track
Suzuka is beloved by drivers and teams for its flowing, high-speed character and its figure-of-eight layout, but it’s narrow in places and punishes mistakes. Japanese fans are distinctive and passionate—filling grandstands early and bringing creative support—and the circuit’s layout often ranks among drivers’ favorites. This year’s cars, with different downforce and power characteristics, will test drivers through fast, grip-limited corners where errors are costly and overtaking can be difficult. After two lively opening weekends, Suzuka will reveal whether the trends so far continue on one of F1’s most demanding tracks.