Overview
Odds below come from F1’s Official Betting Data Supplier ALT Sports Data, are shown in decimal format and can change before the race. (Decimal example: odds of 1.50 return $1.50 for each $1 staked.) This guide summarises who the market sees as most likely to win, score podiums and place across the field at Lusail.
Win prospects
Max Verstappen is the market favourite. Despite a tougher season than 2021, he’s hit strong late-season form — fresh from his sixth victory of the year, a 2.70 average over the last 10 races and an 80% top-three rate in that span, including four wins in his last seven outings. Lando Norris sits close behind after an unlucky Las Vegas weekend that ended in a post-race disqualification; excluding that DSQ he’s taken four podiums in five races and won in Mexico and Brazil. Oscar Piastri is also highly rated: tied for the most wins this year (seven) and with recent good returns at Lusail, including two top-three finishes on his last visits.
Podium contenders
George Russell’s second place in Las Vegas underlined his pace — that was his ninth top-10 of the year and leaves his average finish across 22 races at about 4.45. Russell has the speed but hasn’t reached the podium in his two most recent visits to Lusail. Rookie Kimi Antonelli earned his third podium of the campaign, his first back-to-back rostrum, and has been reliably in the top six. Charles Leclerc narrowly missed the last podium but has seven top-three finishes this season and was P2 at Lusail in the past year; he’ll be aiming to get back on the rostrum.
Top-six hopefuls
Carlos Sainz produced a strong weekend to finish fifth last time out — only his second top-six of the season — but inconsistency has limited his upside. Lewis Hamilton recovered from 19th to eighth in Nevada and has recorded nine top-six finishes this year, remaining a frequent upper-midfield threat. Rookie Isack Hadjar posted his third top-six of 2025 in Round 22. Ollie Bearman, with three top-six results in his last eight races, is one to watch for pace and momentum. Fernando Alonso returns to Lusail with a consistent record: he’s never finished outside the top 10 there, his worst result at the track is P7 (2024) and he stood on the podium in 2021.
Top-10 candidates
Nico Hülkenberg arrives with confidence after three top-10s in his past four starts and eight top-10 finishes overall this year. Alex Albon, an early-season midfield pacesetter, most recently scored a top-10 at Monza. Esteban Ocon has been working through the midfield and posted two ninth-place finishes in the last three rounds. Yuki Tsunoda remains a contender but narrowly missed the top 10 in recent events (P12 in Mexico, P11 last weekend); he has six top-10s this season, most recently in Austin.
Qualifying pace and pole
Verstappen leads the pole conversation historically, arriving with seven poles before the previous round and having taken pole at Lusail in 2023 (he started P2 on his last visit). Lando Norris claimed pole in Las Vegas but has yet to start from the front row at Lusail. Oscar Piastri, with five front-row starts this season, is a realistic threat, though McLaren has generally found it hard to beat Red Bull and Mercedes in Qatar qualifying.
Winning team
Red Bull — and Verstappen in particular — are the favourites: the team has claimed four of the last seven wins and is chasing a third straight Lusail victory. Mercedes are the only other team to have taken a win in Qatar (Hamilton in the inaugural race). McLaren, the 2025 Teams’ Champions, have yet to win the team prize at Lusail, though Piastri was runner-up in 2023. Ferrari arrive without a recent win at this venue.
Best of the midfield
The midfield battle has been tight all season. Alexander Albon leads the “best of the rest” standings with five wins among midfield rivals this year. Fernando Alonso follows with four midfield victories (most recently Singapore). Nico Hülkenberg has also taken the midfield fight three times, most recently in Austin.
Sprint outlook
Qatar hosts the final Sprint of 2025, where every point matters. Verstappen and Norris have both reached the Sprint podium in three of five events this year, each claiming two Sprint victories. Lewis Hamilton is the only other Sprint winner so far this year (China). Oscar Piastri has finished second in Shanghai, Miami and Spain but failed to finish the two most recent Sprints.
Notes and disclaimer
Prices were correct at publication but can fluctuate. This article is for entertainment only; F1 does not guarantee accuracy or completeness. Any action you take is at your own risk. F1 does not encourage gambling and reminds readers to gamble responsibly.