A dramatic weekend flipped the scrap for survival: West Ham’s chance of relegation has more than doubled in 48 hours after a swing of results left them inside the bottom three with three matches remaining. The Hammers were beaten 3-0 by Brentford on Saturday despite striking the woodwork four times, then Tottenham’s 2-1 win over Aston Villa on Sunday leapfrogged Spurs above West Ham.
Leeds look largely secure after a 3-0 win at Burnley on Friday, moving seven points clear of the drop with three games to go. That cushion could be enough to confirm safety if West Ham fail to beat leaders Arsenal on Sunday. Nottingham Forest can take a big step towards safety with a positive result at Chelsea on Bank Holiday Monday (3pm); Forest start the week three points above the relegation zone and have a game in hand.
Fixtures in the run-in
The remaining schedule slightly favours Tottenham in the fight for the final survival spot. A West Ham win over Arsenal would lift the Hammers out of the bottom three; any other result would let Spurs extend the gap. Spurs then host Leeds on Monday Night Football, by which point Leeds may already be mathematically safe.
Remaining fixtures for the sides involved:
– Leeds: Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)
– Crystal Palace: Everton (H), Man City (A), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H)
– Nottingham Forest: Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Manchester United (A), Bournemouth (H)
– Tottenham: Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H)
– West Ham: Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)
Supercomputer odds and what changed
With Wolves and Burnley already relegated, only one Premier League place remains at stake. Opta’s supercomputer shifted sharply after the recent results: West Ham’s relegation probability rose from 38% to 77%, while Spurs’ dropped from 59% to 21%. Nottingham Forest sit on a 2% chance of relegation but that would rise if they lose at Chelsea. Leeds and Crystal Palace have vanishingly small probabilities — about 0.11% and 0.03% respectively.
How many points will be enough?
Opta’s model suggests 40 points should be enough to secure survival this season. Historically, in the last nine Premier League campaigns, teams finishing on 36 points or more have stayed up. Last season was an outlier: just 26 points would have saved a club because of the very weak bottom three. Only three teams in the 20-team era have been relegated with 40 points or more: Sunderland (1996/97), Bolton (1997/98) and West Ham (2002/03, 42 points).
Club-by-club snapshot
14th — Leeds (43 points)
Leeds have hit form late, unbeaten in six since early March. On 43 points, statistically they sit in a safe position for a 38-game season; the Whites can begin planning for next season in the top flight.
15th — Crystal Palace (43 points)
Oliver Glasner’s side slipped after a 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth but, like Leeds, sit on 43 points. Palace have one extra fixture remaining compared with many rivals — an away trip to Manchester City — which gives them slightly more margin for error, so relegation is unlikely unless results go disastrously against them and their rivals win out.
16th — Nottingham Forest
Forest have a congested fortnight: Chelsea in the league on Monday, then the Europa League semi-final second leg against Aston Villa on Thursday. Manager Vítor Pereira might rotate to protect players, relying on a three-point cushion to navigate the sequence. Two of their remaining league fixtures after Chelsea are at the City Ground where home form will be vital.
17th — Tottenham
Despite confident punditry that relegation would be a shock, Spurs find themselves in a precarious spot. Back-to-back league wins have nudged them above the danger zone, but their margin for error is slim and a couple of bad results could reverse the momentum.
18th — West Ham
What looked like a late turnaround for West Ham has been dented by the defeat at Brentford. The Hammers now occupy a relegation place with matches against Arsenal and Newcastle before a final-day home meeting with a likely safe Leeds. Those three games will determine whether they can secure survival early or leave it to the last day.
19th — Burnley
Burnley’s drop back to the Championship was confirmed in late April after the defeat to Manchester City. Manager Scott Parker left shortly afterwards and the Clarets are now focused on avoiding the wooden spoon in their final fixtures.
20th — Wolves
Wolves were relegated on April 20. Rob Edwards remains in charge for the remaining matches, and while relegation is settled, they could still move above Burnley depending on results.
What to watch next
With most teams having three matches remaining and a couple with four, the closing weeks will be intense. Key fixtures to follow include West Ham v Arsenal, Spurs v Leeds and Chelsea v Nottingham Forest. Opta’s projections give a clear picture of who is favoured, but form, injuries and the pressure of the run-in mean there is still room for dramatic late twists as clubs fight to avoid becoming the final side to drop out of the Premier League.