When Oscar Piastri’s victory at the Dutch Grand Prix in late August left Max Verstappen 104 points adrift, most in the paddock — including Verstappen — assumed his run of four straight titles was effectively over. Verstappen was also 70 points behind Lando Norris, who would likely have completed a McLaren one-two at Zandvoort had a late technical issue not forced him to retire.
Verstappen’s second place at his home race was only his second podium in an eight-race winless stretch that included the sacking of Christian Horner as Red Bull team principal and his replacement by Laurent Mekies. At that stage Red Bull seemed unable to match McLaren’s pace, and the title looked out of reach.
Three months on, Verstappen arrives at the season finale in Abu Dhabi with a genuine chance of extending his streak. He has outscored Piastri by 108 points over the last eight rounds to move ahead of the Australian, and now sits 12 points behind championship leader Norris. While Red Bull’s form has improved markedly, it is McLaren’s late-season miscues that have reopened the title fight.
How Red Bull turned it around
Red Bull’s season hit a low in Hungary, where Verstappen qualified eighth and finished ninth — his poorest weekend for pace. Zandvoort showed progress but Verstappen still couldn’t match the McLarens on pure speed, even if Norris’ retirement helped him to second.
The momentum shift came when Red Bull introduced a major floor upgrade at Monza, enabling Verstappen to take pole and win in Italy and then repeat the double in Azerbaijan. Since that upgrade he’s been on the podium in eight straight races with four wins. Team atmosphere improved under Mekies and, despite struggles getting Yuki Tsunoda to score consistently, Red Bull and Verstappen have been excellent during the late surge.
Baku errors open a crack
McLaren had enjoyed a season with few significant mistakes, so Piastri crashing out of both qualifying and the race in Baku was a shock. Some speculated the Australian’s form might have been unsettled after the team had asked him to yield second to Norris in Italy following a slow pit stop, but whatever the cause, Piastri dropped into a slump that yielded six races without a podium.
Norris failed to capitalise fully on Piastri’s errors in Baku, qualifying only seventh and making mistakes in the race that left him mired. Verstappen was clinical, making up ground on both McLarens and keeping his title hopes alive.
Austin repercussions and collision
Tensions flared at McLaren after Norris passed Piastri at the Singapore Grand Prix. Initially the team called the contact a racing incident, but ahead of the US weekend Norris said he would face team-enforced “repercussions.” That later materialised as giving Piastri priority over Norris in the late stages of qualifying — a vague and contentious measure that dominated the build-up to the Sprint in Austin.
The policy was short-lived. Piastri launched a reckless move at the Sprint start that took both McLarens out of the race. Team bosses swiftly reverted to equal treatment. Verstappen won the Sprint and scored eight points on McLaren, while their Sprint retirement deprived the team of data that might have helped during the weekend. Norris still finished second in the Grand Prix and Piastri fifth, leaving Verstappen within 40 points with five races remaining.
Vegas disqualifications hand Verstappen a lifeline
Norris then produced two exceptional weekends — taking pole and victory in Mexico City and strong results in Brazil — to retake and then extend a championship lead. After Interlagos, Verstappen trailed Norris by 49 points and admitted the title was looking unlikely with only a triple-header left.
Las Vegas looked to be another blow for Verstappen as Norris finished second behind him. But hours after the race both McLarens were disqualified for exceeding skid block wear limits, erasing crucial points and dramatically tightening the standings. The ruling brought Verstappen level with Piastri and left him 24 points behind Norris with two races to go. It also spared Piastri losing additional ground to Norris. McLaren later attributed the excessive wear to a setup error that caused extreme bouncing — a costly misjudgement given how strong Norris had been.
Qatar strategic mistake extends the fight
Qatar offered Norris his first real shot to clinch the title, but a series of strategic missteps for McLaren kept the race open. Piastri returned to form to take pole and win the Sprint, while Norris was third in both and Verstappen fourth. In qualifying Norris had blown his final flying lap, handing Piastri pole for the Grand Prix and leaving Norris second on the grid. Verstappen capitalised off the line to move into second early.
A complication in Qatar was a one-off limit on tyre life that essentially required two pit stops from each car, barring red flags. When a Safety Car arrived on lap seven, most teams pitted to lock into two equal stints. McLaren opted not to pit either Piastri or Norris, citing strategic flexibility and concerns about emerging in traffic or a potential double-stack penalty. With no further Safety Car interruptions, the decision backfired. Verstappen pitted and later chased down Piastri to take the win, while Norris recovered to fourth late on after a rival’s mistake, salvaging two important points.
Where things stand
Norris heads into Abu Dhabi as the favourite, leading Verstappen by 12 points with Piastri a further four points behind Verstappen. But McLaren’s errors — in qualifying strategy, intra-team handling, car setup and the costly Las Vegas disqualification — have swung the door wide enough for what would be one of the sport’s most remarkable comebacks.
The 2025 season concludes with the title-deciding Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.