Welcome to The Radar, where Nick Wright blends data and opinion on Premier League stories. This week: Liverpool’s long-pass problem, Leeds’ formation change, and a player to watch.
Liverpool’s big weakness exposed again
Mohamed Salah’s omission from Liverpool’s starting XI for the second time in four days dominated talk after the 1-1 draw with Sunderland. His form is a concern, but the match highlighted a larger issue: Liverpool’s ongoing vulnerability to long passes.
Sunderland played 73 long passes at Anfield (Opta) — the third-highest total in a Premier League game this season — and Liverpool have faced four of the five highest long-pass totals this term. It is more than a one-off: under Arne Slot, Liverpool’s opponents play long at a far higher rate than most sides, and results have suffered. In the four games this season where opponents hit the 70-mark for long passes, Liverpool have only one win; Crystal Palace and Manchester United each took full points in similar matches.
When opponents play more than 20% of their passes long across 13 Premier League games this season, Liverpool’s win rate is 30.8%, down from 71.8% in other games. The pattern began before this campaign: under Jurgen Klopp Liverpool regularly faced high long-pass percentages, though the figure dipped in Klopp’s final seasons. This season the opponents’ long-pass share against Liverpool sits at 18.22% (Arsenal next on 15.67%) compared with a league average of 11.77%.
The Sunderland game illustrated the mechanics. Sunderland goalkeeper Robin Roefs sent 31 of 53 passes long — his highest total this season — and one of those led to the opener when Wilson Isidor won the first header, Virgil van Dijk failed to clear the loose ball, and Chemsdine Talbi scored. Roefs also put Isidor through in stoppage time for what should have been a winner. Statistically, Van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate are winning a higher share of aerial duels this term (Van Dijk from 72% to 78%; Konate from 70% to 72%), but they’re contesting roughly 45% more aerials and the second balls are proving problematic.
Why teams go long
Sitting deep and going direct is an attractive tactic against Liverpool because it bypasses their press. Slot’s side are pressing less effectively partly because they have fewer opportunities to win the ball high up the pitch: their high turnovers, possessions won in the final third, pressures and counter-pressures are all down from last season. Opponents are reacting quicker to second balls and loose clearances, turning those moments into chances.
Leeds next to profit?
Saturday’s trip to Elland Road should worry Liverpool. Newly promoted Leeds, under Daniel Farke, have responded well to a switch to 3-4-2-1, beating Chelsea 3-1 after a strong showing at Manchester City. The formation lets Farke pair Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Lukas Nmecha, two physically imposing forwards, which also gives Leeds an option to play more direct. Notably, Leeds sent a higher percentage of passes long against Chelsea than in any other game this season — an ominous sign for Liverpool, who have struggled against teams that employ direct, aerial strategies.
Player Radar: Who to watch
Omari Hutchinson has been patient since his ÂŁ37.5m move to Nottingham Forest from Ipswich. He earned his first Premier League start against Wolves on Wednesday and assisted the winner; that performance could see him start again against Everton on Saturday.
Live Radar: What’s on Sky this weekend
Saturday Night Football: Leeds v Liverpool (kick-off 5:30pm) on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
Super Sunday: Brighton v West Ham (2pm) and Fulham v Crystal Palace (4:30pm) live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
Monday Night Football: Wolves v Man Utd (kick-off 8pm) on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
Read last week’s Radar
Last week’s column previewed Moises Caicedo’s midfield duel with Declan Rice at Stamford Bridge — an encounter that ended with a needless red card and a notable outcome in favour of Arsenal.