Ireland head into this weekend’s headline Autumn Nations Series clash with South Africa in Dublin as sizeable underdogs, yet recent history suggests the Springboks should not take them lightly.
Rassie Erasmus’ side have looked fearsomely strong in the autumn, opening with a 61-7 win over Japan at Wembley, then impressive 32-17 and 32-14 victories in France and Italy — matches in which they were reduced to 14 men for long periods after red cards. The comeback win over Six Nations champions France in Paris, coming from behind, was a particular display of depth and resilience.
By contrast, Ireland’s autumn has been inconsistent. They began undercooked — and after a controversial early Tadhg Beirne red card — with a 26-13 defeat to New Zealand in Chicago, then a scratchy 41-10 win over Japan in Dublin and a much-improved 46-19, record victory over Australia, in which Mack Hansen scored a first-half hat-trick. How much that surge against Australia owed to Wallabies fatigue is unclear, but the result was a morale boost.
Most would still rate South Africa as the world’s best side heading into the weekend, despite a Rugby Championship in which they were not at their vintage best — losses at home to Australia, a near miss against the Wallabies and defeat to New Zealand at Eden Park. The autumn, however, has been a show of power and talent for the Springboks.
Saturday is a huge challenge for Ireland, and yet the recent head-to-head record favours them: Ireland have won four of the last five Tests between the nations. Those Irish wins came in Dublin in 2017 and 2022, at the 2023 Rugby World Cup in Paris (a tournament South Africa would go on to win), and in Durban in 2024 to secure a 1-1 series draw. South Africa’s lone win in that stretch was a 27-20 result in Pretoria in 2024, a Test influenced heavily by TMO decisions.
Since Erasmus left Munster early to take charge of South Africa in 2017, Ireland have often had their number. The 2022 and 2023 wins came amid a 17-Test Irish winning run that put Andy Farrell’s side at world No 1 and marked them as World Cup favourites, but Ireland currently appear some way off those heights and have faced suggestions of decline. Beating the reigning world No 1 again would be a clear statement, but it will require one of Ireland’s best performances in some time.
Ireland defence coach Simon Easterby was frank about the task. He said the team would take positives from the Australia game but must improve each week, especially in physicality and in stopping tries when opponents penetrate the 22. He stressed the need to get better with and without the ball and noted the group has had open, honest conversations while building resilience after a long travel schedule that included Chicago.
Injuries affect selection: Ulster centre Stuart McCloskey will miss out with a groin injury, while flanker Josh van der Flier and centre Garry Ringrose are expected to return after hamstring issues. Easterby reported a good mood in camp and positive training ahead of the Aviva clash.
History suggests the Springboks will not have it easy in Dublin; the contest is finely poised.