Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports’ column where Nick Wright blends data and judgement to highlight the weekend’s Premier League talking points. This week’s focus: why Brighton have dipped, what Crystal Palace hope from new signing Jørgen Strand Larsen, and a player to watch on Super Sunday.
A pivotal weekend for Hurzeler
Brighton’s clash with local rivals Crystal Palace, live on Sky Sports on Sunday, carries added weight for Fabian Hurzeler after his side surrendered a late lead against Everton. A run of one victory in 11 matches has frayed some nerves among supporters. Most results have been tight: only once this season have Brighton beaten an opponent by more than one goal (at Anfield), and six of the last 11 fixtures have finished level. That sequence has seen the Seagulls slide from fifth to 13th in two months.
Hurzeler has remained publicly upbeat. “I’m quite convinced that at the end of the season we will be where we want to be,” he said, yet another win — and a first against Palace under his stewardship — would soothe growing unease. Any other outcome at the Amex would amplify pressure on the 32-year-old, who took Brighton to eighth last season but heard boos after recent results including the Everton draw and a loss to Fulham.
The underlying numbers point to reasons for concern. Brighton’s expected goals against (xGA) has spiked recently, indicating defensive fragility, while their rolling five-game expected goals for (xG) has softened. For the first time since Hurzeler’s early months last season, Brighton are conceding more chances than they’re creating, although the last two matches showed slight improvements in the quality of opportunities compared with the preceding run.
Conceding late goals has been both costly and conspicuous, but the metrics also explain Hurzeler’s optimism that form can be recovered. Creativity and finishing, however, are clearer problems. Brighton rank sixth for sequences of 10+ passes this season (258), yet none of those prolonged passages have produced a goal — a worrying sign of sterile possession. They will need greater invention against a Palace team that frequently surrenders possession; last season Brighton lost the corresponding fixture despite 65% possession.
Goalscoring regression is stark. Brighton fired 66 goals last season, outperforming their xG, but this term they’ve scored nearly four fewer goals than expected. Only Wolves and Palace, both struggling at the wrong end of the table, have underperformed their xG by a bigger margin. The goals burden falls heavily on Danny Welbeck: the 35-year-old has eight Premier League goals and is Brighton’s clear top scorer, with no teammate having more than three. Strike alternatives are limited — the 18-year-old Charalampos Kostoulas shows promise but is inexperienced, and Georginio Rutter is often seen as more of a No.10 than a pure centre-forward.
Injuries have compounded selection headaches. Wide options have been weakened by knocks to Yankuba Minteh and Kaoru Mitoma; Brighton have lost the sixth-most days to injury in the division this season, and Yasin Ayari is the latest player sidelined. Those absences erode rotation and tactical flexibility, making it harder to generate the attacking spark the side needs.
More dropped points against Palace — a team Brighton have beaten only twice in 13 Premier League meetings — would be hard to take for fans already impatient with the current sequence.
Can Strand Larsen ignite Palace?
Crystal Palace arrive at the Amex amid their own upheaval. January brought a series of low points: an FA Cup exit to sixth-tier opposition, the sale of their captain to Manchester City at short notice, and confirmation that manager Oliver Glasner will leave at season’s end. On the pitch, Palace have now gone nine Premier League matches without a win.
The Eagles hope January additions can arrest the slide. Evan Guessand joined on loan from Aston Villa, and Palace spent around £48m to sign Jørgen Strand Larsen from Wolves — a sizeable outlay for a forward who had scored once in 22 appearances this season. Palace are betting on a return to the form that saw Strand Larsen score 14 non-penalty goals in his breakthrough campaign, and a goalscoring debut at the Amex would quickly placate skeptics, especially with fellow forward Jean-Philippe sidelined by a knee issue. The striker also missed a late move to AC Milan, adding narrative pressure to make an immediate impact.
Player Radar: Watch Antoine Semenyo
After Brighton vs Palace comes Liverpool vs Manchester City. Antoine Semenyo turned in a memorable performance on his last visit to Anfield with Bournemouth in August, scoring twice. Having moved clubs since, he’s a player to watch to see if he can cause similar problems for Liverpool’s defence in new colours.
Live on Sky this weekend
Friday Night Football: Leeds vs Nottingham Forest, live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event, kick-off 8pm.
Saturday Night Football: Newcastle vs Brentford, live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event, kick-off 5.30pm.
Sunday: Brighton vs Crystal Palace from 1pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event, kick-off 2pm, followed by Liverpool vs Man City at 4.30pm.
Previous Radar
Last week’s column examined whether Senne Lammens is the goalkeeper Manchester United needed and explored Ezri Konsa’s passing influence for Aston Villa.