Formula 1’s new regulations finally start in Melbourne as the Australian Grand Prix opens a 24-race season in which nobody is quite sure what to expect.
This winter’s changes — widely regarded as the most extensive in the sport’s history — revise both chassis and power units, creating fresh challenges for teams and drivers. Power units feature a near 50-50 split between internal combustion and electrical power for the first time, placing new demands on energy deployment and battery replenishment strategies.
All 11 teams have nine days of pre-season running to learn their all-new cars, but much remains to be discovered and refined, particularly around recharge and energy use. Martin Brundle expects an unpredictable start in Melbourne.
“It’s a dramatic change, the biggest ever in Formula 1, and we’re right at the very beginning of it,” Brundle said. “Teams have got to find ways of replenishing the battery and for it to not dominate the lap so much… But, in the beginning, it’s going to be slightly wild. We’re going to get unreliability as well, much more than we’ve seen in the last few years.”
F1 2026 at a glance
– 24 race weekends
– Six Sprints
– New chassis and engine regulations
– New Madrid street race
– New 11th team — Cadillac
– Audi join F1 and rebrand Sauber
– Red Bull produce their own engine for the first time
– British 18-year-old Arvid Lindblad joins the grid
Who will contest at the front?
Testing suggests the quartet that dominated the previous rules era — McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari — remain the likeliest race winners. However, the rule changes have scattered the pack, making a definitive pecking order hard to pin down.
“The usual top four teams — Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes, and Red Bull — are extremely close, even though they are going about it different ways and with three different power units,” Brundle said. He noted the midfield appears tight too, with a more pronounced gap to the leaders and some teams struggling at the back. He also warned testing in Barcelona and Bahrain cannot fully predict Melbourne’s outcome because of differing track and weather conditions.
A fluid opening months
Brundle expects the championship to be changeable, with teams leapfrogging each other as significant upgrade packages arrive, particularly in the first half of the year. “There’s not going to be, like, little gains with an upgrade here and there, we’re going to see packages coming along all year, particularly in the first half of the year, where teams start leapfrogging when they really find a chunk of the time.”
Title favourites
Bookmakers head to Australia favouring Mercedes for both the season-opening win and the 2026 world championships. That view rests partly on the belief Mercedes, who dominated the 2014 hybrid era, are well placed to adapt again and on the strong impression their W17 made in testing.
George Russell is the bookies’ favourite for the Drivers’ Championship. Brundle praised Russell’s confidence and consistency, saying he has the demeanor and experience to seize a title opportunity. He also expects Mercedes team-mate Kimi Antonelli to have a strong year.
But Brundle stresses there is no clear single favourite. He sees Ferrari and both of its drivers — plus McLaren’s Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris — as serious threats. Piastri will be motivated after last year’s lessons; Norris arrives as a world champion with confidence. Brundle also singled out Red Bull and Max Verstappen, noting Verstappen’s car control will be particularly valuable with the new machines.
Brundle on Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari innovation
“He seems happier. All the way through his career a happy Lewis has been a fast Lewis. He’s got his work cut out to beat Leclerc, but I just sense Ferrari have been more innovative. They’ve got confidence and when you look at the Haas as well with the Ferrari power unit, I sense that it’s a good and reliable one.”
Racing, drivers and who will thrive
Although a wider field spread is expected early on, Brundle is optimistic the new cars will enable close and sometimes novel wheel-to-wheel battles as teams and drivers adopt different energy-management approaches. Some drivers have criticised the cars’ complexity, but Brundle believes the smartest operators will find performance advantages.
“Initially I think we’re going to lose a little bit of the David and Goliath stuff, but I think we’re going to see some good racing, we’re going to see some unorthodox overtakes,” he said. He expects overtaking in unusual places as recharge and deployment strategies vary, and believes drivers will have to fight to keep the cars on their road, especially late in tyre life.
“I think of Senna playing with the throttle like a musical instrument… Schumacher playing his steering wheel, his differential and his brake bias… The smart drivers with the right attitude, I think, will really shine in the beginning.”
Brundle on Lando Norris
“My absolute takeaway from him from this pre-season is he’s still going to be who he is and is not going to change that. He’s not going to go ‘I’m going to be a multiple champion now’ but is saying ‘I will go step by step and be who I am… I will not change that, but what I have got is the satisfaction of being a world champion.’ I see Lando in a very strong position.”
What to watch in Melbourne
Testing performances, energy management strategies, reliability and how teams deploy early upgrade packages will be key storylines at Albert Park. Different approaches to battery recharge and power deployment are likely to create variability and opportunities for surprise results, while Melbourne’s unique layout may reshuffle the order seen in testing.
Sky Sports F1 Australian GP highlights and coverage will cover practice, qualifying and the race across the weekend, but the real storyline is the learning curve for teams and drivers as F1’s new era begins in earnest.