England remain in a strong position to secure a fifth Champions League place for 2026/27 despite a poor set of last-16 results.
Four of the six Premier League sides—Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle and Tottenham—were eliminated on Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving Arsenal and Liverpool as the only English representatives still in the Champions League. Even so, England sits top of the UEFA coefficient table, which ranks nations by their clubs’ performances across the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.
How the coefficient table works
Each nation earns points from club results in the three European competitions. Totals are divided by the number of clubs a country has in Europe to produce an average ranking. Wins are worth two points, draws one, and losses none. Bonus points are also awarded for league-phase finishing positions and progress through knockout rounds, with Champions League bonuses higher than those for the other competitions (12 points for top of a Champions League group versus six for the Europa League and four for the Conference League).
Current standings and margins
England leads the table by five coefficient points over third-placed Germany, even though Germany still has four teams in European competition while England has five remaining ahead of Thursday’s matches. England is four points clear of Spain and five ahead of Portugal. Italy cannot catch England now, as no Serie A teams remain in the Champions League.
Why England still looks comfortable
England’s advantage is partly down to favourable knockout draws for rivals. Spain is weakened by Barcelona facing Atlético Madrid in the quarter-finals, guaranteeing the elimination of one LaLiga side. Real Madrid’s tough tie against Bayern Munich also limits Spain’s potential points haul. In the Europa League, Spanish clubs Real Betis and Celta Vigo could face each other in the semis, further reducing Spain’s collective points. England can still benefit from the possibility of an all-English Champions League final between Arsenal and Liverpool.
England’s grip on Portugal can be strengthened if Arsenal beat Sporting CP in the quarters. If Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest progress to the Europa League final, they would likely out-score FC Porto, helping England’s coefficient.
Risks remain
England is not mathematically assured of the extra spot. The 2023/24 season provides a recent warning: England looked set to earn a fifth place but saw that advantage evaporate when Arsenal, Manchester City and West Ham were eliminated in European quarter-finals. Arsenal, Liverpool and the remaining Europa and Conference League clubs still need results to secure the extra slot.
Which Premier League clubs could benefit?
Domestically, the fifth Champions League slot would go to the top Premier League finishers if England earns the extra place. Liverpool sit fifth in the league, one point ahead of Chelsea and four ahead of Brentford. Opta probabilities suggest Arsenal and Manchester City are certain to finish in the top five, with Manchester United and Aston Villa very likely. Liverpool’s chance of finishing in the top five is about 62.4%, Chelsea 46.7%, while Brentford, Newcastle, Everton and Brighton have smaller chances.
Seven-team scenario
There is a scenario in which seven Premier League teams could qualify for the Champions League. If Liverpool win the Champions League and Aston Villa win the Europa League, and both finish outside the league’s top five, England could have seven entrants: Arsenal and Man City as top-two plus the league top five incorporating European winners. An illustrative finishing order under that scenario would be:
3rd: Manchester United
4th: Chelsea
5th: Brentford
6th: Aston Villa (Europa League winners)
7th: Liverpool (Champions League winners)
All of those teams would join Arsenal and Manchester City in the Champions League.