As Formula 1 heads to Lusail for the penultimate round of 2025, here’s what the odds say about who is likely to prevail in Qatar. Odds come from F1’s Official Betting Data Supplier ALT Sports Data, are decimal, and may change. (Decimal example: odds of 1.50 return $1.50 for each $1 staked.)
The odds for the win
Max Verstappen arrives as the market leader. He’s had a tougher season than 2021 but is in strong late-season form: fresh off his sixth win of the year, averaging 2.70 over the last 10 races and with an 80% top-three return in that span, including four wins in his last seven outings. Lando Norris follows after an unlucky Las Vegas weekend — a post-race disqualification despite an otherwise excellent run. Excluding the DSQ, Norris has four podiums in five races and victories in Mexico and Brazil. Oscar Piastri, who last podiumed at Monza, is also highly rated: he’s tied for the most wins this year (seven) and has finished in the top three on his last two visits to Lusail.
The odds for a podium finish
George Russell is a podium contender after finishing second in Las Vegas; that result was his ninth top-10 of the year and brings his average finish across 22 races to 4.45. Russell has the pace but has not podiumed here in his last two visits. Youngster Kimi Antonelli secured his third podium of the season — his first consecutive rostrum — and has been consistently in the top six. Charles Leclerc missed the last podium by one place but has seven top-three finishes this year and was P2 at Lusail last season; he’ll be seeking to improve on that.
The odds for a top-six finish
Carlos Sainz produced a strong weekend to finish fifth last time out, his second top-six of the season, though inconsistency has been an issue. Lewis Hamilton recovered from 19th to eighth in Nevada and has nine top-six finishes this season; he’s a regular threat for the upper midfield. Rookie Isack Hadjar recorded his third top-six of 2025 in Round 22, and Ollie Bearman — after three top-six results in his past eight races — is one to watch. Fernando Alonso returns to a venue where he’s never finished outside the top 10; his worst Lusail result is P7 (2024), and he podiumed here in 2021.
The odds for a top-10 finish
Nico Hülkenberg heads into Qatar with confidence after three top-10s in his past four starts and eight top-10s overall this year. Alex Albon, a frequent midfield pacesetter earlier in the season, last scored a top-10 at Monza. Esteban Ocon has been fighting through the midfield and posted two ninth-place finishes in the past three rounds. Yuki Tsunoda remains a contender but narrowly missed the top 10 in recent races (P12 in Mexico, P11 last weekend); he has six top-10 finishes this season, most recently in Austin.
The odds for who will be fastest in Qualifying
Verstappen leads the pole battle historically, with seven poles before the previous round, and he took pole at Lusail in 2023 (starting P2 on his last visit). Lando Norris claimed pole in Las Vegas but has never started from the front row at Lusail. Oscar Piastri, with five front-row starts this season, is a possibility, though McLaren’s cars have tended to struggle to beat Red Bull and Mercedes in Qatar qualifying.
The odds for the winning team
Red Bull (and Verstappen) come in as favourites: they’ve won four of the last seven races and are chasing a hat trick of Lusail victories. Mercedes are the only other team that has won in Qatar (Hamilton in the inaugural race). McLaren — 2025 Teams’ Champions — have yet to take the team trophy at Lusail, though Piastri was runner-up in 2023. Ferrari arrive without a win at this venue in their recent history.
The odds for the best of the rest
The midfield has been competitive all year. Alexander Albon leads the “best of the rest” standings with five wins over his midfield rivals this season. Fernando Alonso follows with four midfield wins (most recently Singapore). Hülkenberg has taken the midfield fight three times, most recently in Austin.
The odds for the Sprint win
Qatar hosts the final Sprint of 2025, with every point critical. Verstappen and Norris have both stood on the Sprint podium in three of five events this year, each claiming two Sprint victories. Lewis Hamilton is the only other Sprint winner in 2025 (China). Oscar Piastri has finished second in Shanghai, Miami and Spain but failed to finish the two most recent Sprints.
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