West Ham’s chances of relegation to the Championship have doubled in 48 hours after a swing weekend in the fight for the final survival spot. West Ham were beaten 3-0 by Brentford on Saturday—despite hitting the woodwork four times—and the situation worsened when Tottenham beat Aston Villa 2-1 on Sunday, leapfrogging the Hammers and dropping Nuno Espírito Santo’s side into the bottom three with three matches remaining.
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Leeds’ place in the Premier League next season is all but secure after a 3-0 win over Burnley on Friday Night, giving them a seven-point cushion above the relegation zone with three games to play. Their safety could be confirmed if West Ham lose to leaders Arsenal on Sunday. Daniel Farke’s side have leapfrogged Crystal Palace into 14th on goal difference after Palace lost 3-0 to Bournemouth.
Nottingham Forest can take a big step toward safety if they get a result away at Chelsea on Bank Holiday Monday (live on Sky Sports, 3pm). Forest start the week three points above the drop with a game in hand.
With four teams fighting to avoid relegation, Sky Sports tracks the battle for survival.
Who plays who in the run-in?
The fixture list favours Spurs in the battle for the final relegation spot, particularly this weekend. On Sunday West Ham host Premier League leaders Arsenal at the London Stadium— a win would lift them out of the bottom three; any other result and Spurs could extend their gap. Spurs then face Leeds on Monday Night Football—Farke’s side could be mathematically safe by then.
Fixtures of the relegation-threatened sides:
– Leeds: Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)
– Crystal Palace: Everton (H), Man City (A), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H)
– Nottingham Forest: Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Manchester United (A), Bournemouth (H)
– Tottenham: Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H)
– West Ham: Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)
The supercomputer’s relegation predictions
With Wolves and Burnley relegated, only one spot remains. After the swing weekend, West Ham’s relegation probability doubled from 38% to 77%. Spurs’ chances fell sharply from 59% to 21%. Nottingham Forest sit on just a 2% chance of relegation, though that could change with a defeat to Chelsea. Leeds and Crystal Palace have vanishingly small chances—0.11% and 0.03% respectively.
How many points could be needed?
Opta’s supercomputer expects 40 points would be enough to secure survival. In the last nine Premier League seasons, teams finishing on 36 points or more have avoided relegation. Last season was unusual: 26 points would have sufficed because Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton all went down and returned to the Championship immediately.
Tottenham once benefited from that weak group to focus on the Europa League and finished 17th on 38 points. That cushion is not available this season; relegation to the second tier for the first time since 1977 is a real possibility. Only three teams have been relegated with 40 points or more in the 20-team era—Sunderland (1996/97), Bolton (1997/98) and West Ham (2002/03), the latter going down with 42 points.
14th: Leeds
Leeds have hit form at the right time and are on a six-game unbeaten run since early March. Daniel Farke’s side sit on 43 points—no one has been relegated with such a tally in a 38-game season. The Whites can begin planning for next season in the top flight.
15th: Crystal Palace
Oliver Glasner’s side slipped into the bottom six after a 3-0 loss at Bournemouth. Like Leeds, Palace sit on 43 points and know no team has been relegated from the Premier League with that many points. They also have a slight advantage with four games left—one more than most rivals—though that extra match is away at Manchester City. Palace are not entirely safe if West Ham and Spurs both win, but relegation remains unlikely.
16th: Nottingham Forest
Forest face a congested schedule: Chelsea in the league on Monday, then Aston Villa in the Europa League semi-final second leg on Thursday. Manager Vítor Pereira may use the three-point cushion over the bottom three to rest key players against Chelsea. Two of Forest’s remaining three league matches after Chelsea are at home at the City Ground, where they will hope to muster the spirit to finish the season strongly.
17th: Tottenham
Despite pundit confidence—“the shock of the century” to suggest relegation—Spurs are in a precarious spot. Back-to-back league wins have lifted them above the danger zone into 17th, but the margin for error is small and fortunes can change quickly.
18th: West Ham
West Ham looked set for a great escape after a poor start to the year and a run that included seven points from nine, but the 3-0 loss to Brentford has put them back in trouble. All roads lead to the final day at home to a soon-to-be-safe Leeds as potentially crucial, though they still have matches against Arsenal and Newcastle before then. Can they secure safety earlier?
19th: Burnley
Burnley’s return to the Championship was confirmed after a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City in late April. Scott Parker departed Turf Moor days later, and the Clarets now focus on avoiding the wooden spoon.
20th: Wolves
Wolves were relegated on April 20 after West Ham drew at Crystal Palace. Rob Edwards remains in charge for now, but Wolves could still finish 19th ahead of Burnley.
With three matches to go for most teams, the final weeks will be intense as West Ham, Spurs, Forest and Palace navigate fixtures, pressure and the Opta projections to determine who completes the Premier League’s bottom three.