Three teams separated by three points, eight matches remaining and a season-defining run-in ahead.
Hearts went into the weekend with a five-point cushion but that margin is now slimmer after Celtic beat Motherwell and Hearts were toppled at Kilmarnock. Rangers followed up with a win at St Mirren, leaving the trio locked tightly together and the destination of the title very much up for grabs.
There are three matches left before the league splits into a top six and bottom six — after Matchday 33 the table will fracture and five further matches among the leading sides will decide the championship. Hearts sit top, having driven an unexpected challenge all season, but either half of the Old Firm has taken the trophy every year for the last 41 seasons and both sides are closing fast.
Opta’s model currently projects Steven Naismith’s (note: original said McInnes; verify manager name in current season) side to still lead after April 11 (Matchday 33), with Martin O’Neill’s Celtic second and Danny Röhl’s Rangers third. Bookmakers, however, list Celtic as favourites — a reflection of their institutional experience and the probabilities derived from underlying data.
Can Hearts steady their away form?
Final pre-split fixtures:
– Dundee (H) – Saturday
– Livingston (A) – April 5
– Motherwell (H) – April 11
Tony Bloom set out to bring a title to Hearts within a decade, and after two transfer windows his investment and Jamestown Analytics’ recruitment have reshaped the squad. Claudio Braga and Alexandros Kyziridis have been direct contributors — Braga (17) and Kyziridis (10) combine for 27 goal involvements this season — while Alexander Schwolow’s 12 clean sheets leave him second only to Motherwell’s Calum Ward.
Yet Hearts’ form away from home has dipped; they’ve lost their last three league trips, and the absence of Lawrence Shankland and Cammy Devlin for eight matches has coincided with a reduced win rate. Both players are expected back soon, and their returns could be decisive: McInnes (manager) knows keeping the Old Firm at bay will demand consistency and the restoration of key personnel may tilt the balance.
Why Celtic remain favourites
Final pre-split fixtures:
– Dundee Utd (A) – Sunday
– Dundee (A) – April 5
– St Mirren (H) – April 11
Celtic’s season has been rockier than usual — Brendan Rodgers departed, Wilfried Nancy’s brief 33-day spell included four defeats in six league games, and Martin O’Neill has stepped in twice. Still, Celtic keep finding results. Under difficult circumstances their underlying numbers — chance creation and control — have often remained solid even when finishing and moments of defensive frailty cost them. Bookmakers price in that pedigree and the tendency of big clubs to grind out results under pressure.
Rangers’ revival under Röhl
Final pre-split fixtures:
– Aberdeen (H) – Saturday
– Dundee Utd (H) – April 4
– Falkirk (A) – April 12
Rangers, too, have undergone managerial upheaval since Russell Martin’s departure, but Danny Röhl’s pragmatic approach has reduced volatility. Where possession-heavy phases previously left them exposed, Röhl has prioritised balance: conceding less and managing risk better. There have still been stumbles — a defeat at Hearts and several away draws — but Rangers are among the few teams to have beaten Hearts this season and have not lost to Celtic in league play.
With only three points separating the top three, head-to-head results and how each side copes with pressure over the final eight fixtures will likely be decisive. The split only raises the stakes: five high-stakes meetings among the top sides await, and the team that best handles expectations, form dips and returning personnel should emerge with the title.