This Premier League weekend features two relegation six-pointers. It starts on Friday Night Football as 16th-placed Leeds host 17th-placed Nottingham Forest — both clubs level on points and sitting six clear of the bottom three. On Saturday, 19th-placed Burnley host 18th-placed West Ham in a critical match for the Clarets, who are 11 points off safety with 14 games to go and five points behind the Hammers.
Leeds and Farke at a crossroads
Nottingham Forest away is arguably the biggest game of Leeds’ season and a defining moment for Daniel Farke at Elland Road. The German has quelled early criticism and shown he can adapt to the Premier League, but results will determine whether momentum continues.
Leeds have 26 points from 24 games, marginally above a point-per-game average the club has cited as its safety benchmark. A failure to beat Forest would ramp up pressure: after this weekend Leeds travel to Chelsea and Aston Villa, then host Manchester City. A poor run could see them slip below that mark and invite renewed scrutiny of Farke’s reign.
Can new signing Lucca boost Forest’s finishing?
Nottingham Forest may hand a debut to January loan signing Lorenzo Lucca from Napoli. Sean Dyche needs a boost in front of goal: Forest rank 19th for goals (24) and 19th for shot conversion (8.5%), and have failed to score in 11 of 24 league games — the second-most shutouts in the division. Morgan Gibbs-White is Forest’s top scorer with six league goals; Chris Wood is cited as the club’s highest scorer in the league (37) historically, but has managed only two goals this season amid injury-limited minutes. Igor Jesus, Taiwo Awoniyi and Arnaud Kalimuendo have just three goals between them, so Lucca’s arrival is timely.
Despite struggles in attack, Forest are on their longest unbeaten run of the season (four) and have won four of their last seven away Premier League matches, including the last two. Dyche’s first league win in charge came against Leeds on November 9, and he will be looking to repeat that success on Friday.
Hammers must regroup after Chelsea collapse
West Ham’s survival hopes had improved after recent wins, and they led 2-0 at Chelsea at half-time, but a late collapse — capped by Enzo Fernández’s injury-time winner — has increased pressure. The trip to Turf Moor now looks like a must-win.
There are encouraging signs: attacking threat has risen, with Crysencio Summerville finding form, and deadline-day loanee Axel Disasi could help address defensive vulnerabilities from crosses — a recurring issue exposed at Stamford Bridge. West Ham face a challenging run after Burnley, including fixtures against Manchester United, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Fulham, Manchester City and Aston Villa, so taking points on Saturday is crucial.
Burnley in last chance saloon
For Burnley it is now or never to end a 15-game winless Premier League run and reignite a survival bid following a damaging 3-0 defeat at Sunderland. The alarm bells were already sounding before that performance: mixed results earlier in the season included draws with Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester United and an FA Cup win over Millwall, but consistency has been lacking.
Scott Parker and his squad must respond at Turf Moor. January business did little to strengthen the squad beyond the loan capture of James Ward-Prowse, who is ineligible to face his parent club this weekend. Defender Kyle Walker described the Sunderland showing as unacceptable for a club fighting for survival. Burnley need to show they are still preparing to fight in the Premier League rather than readying for the Championship.